目前我们说中国的养老产业 At present, we say that China's pension industry.
我不一定分得全请大家做参考 I don't necessarily ask you all for reference.
就是养老产业可以分成这样十个不同的子产业 That is, the old-age industry can be divided into such ten different sub-industries.
这里包括老年的医疗老年服务 This includes medical services for the elderly.
也包括老年用品保险金融旅游教育咨询以及一些特殊的产业 Also includes the old age supplies insurance, finance, tourism education, and some special industries.
这其中我想应该没有什么疑义的事 I think there should be no doubt about it.
今天首当其冲的最引起大家关注的应该就是这一条老年地产 Today, the most serious concern should be that this is a real estate for the elderly.
今天目前看起来老年地产的一个状况是有卖房子的 Today, it seems that the old real estate is a state of sale.
像万科 Like Vanke
像绿城等等 Like green city and so on
也有卖医疗和服务地 There are also places to sell medical care and services.
那么还有一部分卖保险的这三个主力大军是目前养老地产商主要的 Then there is a part of the sale of insurance, the three main force is the main old-age developers.
角色 Role
他们各自都有自己擅长的领域 They each have their own areas of expertise.
有自己长期积累下来的一些背景和社会关系 Have their own long-term accumulation of some background and social relations.
以及它生产这种产品的一些固有的思维模式和行事处事的一些方式 And some of its inherent thinking patterns and ways of doing things.
那么他们更关注的也都是在后端能生产出来自己相应的产品 Then they are more concerned about the back end can produce their own products.
比如说卖保险的 For example, selling insurance.
像泰康保险在北京的烟元 Like Taikang insurance's cigarette yuan in Beijing
据说他每个他除了入门费是一个差不多200万的一个保险之外 It is said that every one of him except entry fee is an insurance of about two million.
那么每个月是3万块钱的一个月费费用 So every month is a monthly fee of 30, 000 yuan.
不是一个普通人能够承担得起的 It is not affordable for an ordinary person.
但最终他的房子是一个载体 But eventually his house was a carrier.
它其实要卖还是一份保险 Is it actually sold or is it an insurance policy?
所以我想说的是不同的主导的产业在背后 So what I want to say is that different leading industries are behind.
它其实瞄准的还是自己非常擅长和自己觉得最大的盈利空间 In fact, it is aimed at their own very good and feel that the largest profit space.
因为他擅长 Because he's good at
所以他要继续从这个领域里面继续挖掘 So he's going to continue digging in the field
在这个思路之下 Under this line of thought
就他更关注的总是这条产业链上所有的一个相应的利益关系和产生 On his more concern is always this chain of all the corresponding interest and production.
利益的一些具体的手段 Some concrete means of benefit
那么真正的是不是能够关注到老人的需求 So, is it true that we can pay attention to the needs of the elderly?
对市场到底有多少了解 How much do you know about the market?
这个可能要打一个问号 This may be a question mark.
所以事实上的结果就会说现在的养老地产里头就是我们大家如果去 So in fact, the results will say that the old-age real estate is now, if we all go.
讨论一下说哪一个特别成功 Discuss which one is particularly successful
有没有一个特别成功的算是和案例 Is there a particularly successful sort and case?
好像很难回答这个问题 It seems difficult to answer the question.
尽管有一些我不知道今天在座的有没有来自这个绿城的 Although there are some, I don't know if anyone here today is from this green city.
因为前期我们在参观的时候 Because early in our visit.
正好赶上夏天 Just in time for summer
刚好赶上冬天天气很冷 Just in time for winter, it is very cold.
我们去参观绿城的娱乐养院 We went to visit the amusement park of the green city.
在乌镇 In Wu town
我们看到的情况就是也有一年多的时间入驻 What we have seen is that we have been stationed for more than a year.
实际上入驻率是非常低的 In fact, the occupancy rate is very low.
那么他所一直在他的宣传过程当中最引人注目的学院 Then he has been in the process of his publicity the most remarkable college.
它是学院式的养老 It's a college pension
整个学院的面积非常的大 The whole college is very large.
空间很大 There is a lot of space.
人很少 Few people
带来的结果就是他舍不得开空调了 As a result, he was reluctant to turn on the air conditioner.
因为人确实太少 Because there are really too few people
如果这个时候再开空调的话 If you turn on the air conditioner again at this time
费用就会上去 The cost will go up
舍不得开空调 Reluctant to turn on the air conditioner
舍不得配老师了 I can't bear to match the teacher.
他原来承诺的里面是说你可以学习书法 What he promised was that you could learn calligraphy.
可以学习插花 Can learn flower arrangement
可以学习茶道等等 Can learn tea ceremony and so on.
现在他都请不起了 Now he can't afford it.
他的人员大量减少 His staff has been greatly reduced.
他的食堂开始不够用 His canteen is beginning to run short.
你足够的这样的 You have enough of this
参事其结果十入住率本来也比较低的这样的一个机构 The results of the staff 10 occupancy rate was also relatively low for such an institution.
谈不上机构 No institution
它是一个地产本来就比较低的 It is a real estate is already relatively low.
那么可能有很多人正在观望的过程当中 Then there may be a lot of people waiting to see.
就决定我究竟是去还是不去 Decide whether I should go or not.
甚至也有部分人原本就没打算住 Even some people had no intention of living.
这都是导致它入住率很低的一个原因 This is one of the reasons for its low occupancy rate.
我们说这也许会形成一个恶性循环 We say this may form a vicious circle.
因为那些观望的人看到这样的一个不开空调的没有老师的不能承诺 Because those who are waiting to see such a non-air-conditioning, no teacher can not promise.
自己不能够兑现自己承诺的这样的一个产品的时候 When you can't keep your promise of such a product.
你是不是还会继续选择义无反顾的住进去 Will you continue to choose to live without hesitation?
而且买这样的一个产品的人 And the people who buy such a product
通常来说也不会是说急等着要住进去 It's not usually a matter of waiting to live in.
它一定还会有其他的资产 It must have other assets.
它仍然是有的选择 It's still a choice
所以从这个角度上看 So from this point of view
就是说一个我倒不是说绿城就做不好养老地产 That is to say, I do not mean that the green city can not do a good old-age property.
而是说在这个案例里头 But in this case
其实我们可以看到很多的问题 In fact, we can see a lot of problems.
一个养老地产在前期有一个蛮长时间的一个慢慢的保证它的助力上升 An old-age real estate in the early period has a very long time, a slow guarantee of its rise.
然后通过一个可能是要付运营的一个方式 Then pass a way that may be to pay for the operation.
就是负盈利的方式 Is the way to make a negative profit
慢慢撑过几年的时间是我们可能不能逾越的阶段 A few years is a period that we may not be able to overcome.
而在这个阶段的过程里头 And in the process of this stage
其实有很多的养老地产的开发者其实撑不下去的 In fact, there are a lot of old-age real estate developers can not last.
所以基本上在七年以内 So basically within seven years
如果说还没有能够实现盈利的话 If we have not yet been able to make a profit.
到后面破产的可能性就很大 There is a good chance of going bankrupt later.
事实上现在已经开始有破产的这样的案例了 In fact, there are now beginning to be bankruptcy cases.
我们来看一看养老地产如果按照主体进行分类 Let's take a look at the old-age real estate, according to the main classification.
刚刚我们说的这么三种 Just now we said three kinds.
一类背后是房地产 Behind a category is real estate.
典型的代表是万科绿城保利首创等等 The typical representative is Vanke green city poly initiative and so on.
那么一类是保险类的 So one is insurance
代表 Represent
像泰康中国人寿新华人寿等等 Such as Taikang, China life, Xinhua life, etc.
其实大家如果看看过中国人寿 In fact, if you have seen China life insurance
其实我是他的设计师 In fact, I am his designer.
中国人寿在廊坊的健康生态城非常大 China life in Langfang health ecological city is very large.
13平方公里 13 square kilometres
你就会发现作为一个设计师 You'll find that as a designer.
我就越发的有所感受 I feel more and more.
就是它真的在做养老地产 Is it really doing old-age real estate.
他真的在做健康生态城吗 Is he really doing a healthy eco city?
他知道自己在做什么吗 Does he know what he is doing?
就这个问题确实是一个设计师一边在做一边产生的 On this issue is indeed a designer while doing the side of the generation.
但是这个就其他的故事要讲了 But this is the other story to tell.
我们就不花这个时间了 We will not spend this time.
我们最后一部分是一个医疗和服务类的这样的一个养老机构 Our last part is a health care and services category of such an institution for the elderly.
那么从它的主要的特征上来看 So judging from its main features
我们说房地产的这种类型的开发者 We say real estate developers of this type.
他的特征一般具有他具有一定的资资金的实力 His characteristics generally have the strength of his capital.
同时也有一定的开发的经验 At the same time, there is also some development experience.
做一个房地产开发的一个流程非常复杂 Doing a real estate development process is very complex.
结果我们展示过 And we showed that
那么他有经验 So he has experience
比如像万科 Like Vanke
那么再有就是他正在从一个比较前期 Then there is that he is from a relatively early period.
像廊坊的健康生态城 A healthy ecological city like Langfang
中国人寿的项目 China life project
我们大概是在45年前做 We did it about 45 years ago.
那个时候大概是这个时期 It was about this time
大家会希望用一个养老地产的政策来相对来说比较容易的或者比较 We would like to use an old-age real estate policy to be relatively easier or more.
便宜的来获取一些土地 Cheap to get some land
得到一些政策的支持 Got some policy support
所以从比较假的养老地产走向真的养老地产 So from the relatively fake old-age real estate to real old-age real estate.
这可能多人次 This may be more than the number of people.
讲养老金地产 Talking about pension estate
对 Right
好 Well
那么下面一个特征是养老地产本身的养老产业作为地产开发的比重也 Then the following is a feature of the old-age property itself, as the proportion of real estate development.
正在增加 On the increase
我们看到近期无论是万科无论是历程 We see that the near future, whether Vanke course.
还是其他很多的大的保利等等 Or a lot of other big Paulie and so on
它的都开了养老板块 It's all open for the elderly plate.
还是每个都给自己一个很好听的名字 Or each gives himself a very nice name.
都在做养老的板块都在做 Are doing the old-age plate are doing.
所以它在它原来的整个产业里面的比重也在不断的增加 Therefore, it in its original whole industry, the proportion is also increasing.
那么再有就是持有和销售型现在变成一个比较成熟的模式 Then there is the possession and sale of the model now become a more mature model.
你会卖掉一部分来保证你现金流能够实现正常的运转 You'll sell some of it to make sure your cash flow works.
同时保有一部分来保证你的服务可以持续不断的向外提供用这种方式 At the same time, there is a part to ensure that your services can be continuously provided to the outside in this way.
那么再有就是养老地产常常会到目前为止依然如此 Then there is the old-age real estate will often be so far.
变成跟地方政府讨价还价的一个砝码 Become a bargaining chip with the local government
地方政府当然要增加养老床位数 Of course, local governments should increase the number of elderly beds.
希望给当地能够开辟一定的养老市场 Hope to open up a certain local pension market.
愿意做一定的尝试 Willing to make a certain attempt.
所以常常地产会利用这样一个机会成为一个条件 So often property will take advantage of such an opportunity to become a condition.
是不是 Isn't it
我刚才说的话就说这么做是不对的 What I said just now is wrong.
其实只要最后这个成果 In fact, as long as the final result.
这个产品仍然是一个服务老人为主的 This product is still a service for the elderly.
有一定质量的 Of a certain quality
我觉得这个也可能也没有办法说它就一定是错的 I think this may not be able to say that it must be wrong.
最后就是说慢慢的正在形成其中的一部分的养老地产供应商和生产商 Finally, it is slowly forming part of the old-age property suppliers and producers.
正在成为所谓的市场上的一定的主流 Is becoming the so-called market on a certain mainstream.
所以这个市场非常需要一定的引领的模式 Therefore, the market is very much in need of a leading model.
今天是一个比较全球混战的这么一个阶段一个局面 Today is a relatively global melee of such a phase, a situation.
所以我们碰到过非常多这种跃跃欲试想尝试的这样的开发商 Therefore, we have encountered a lot of such eager to try such developers.
有的资金也比较雄厚 Some of the funds are also relatively strong.
有的其实就可能是希望是人生第一桶金 Some, in fact, may be hope is the first bucket of gold in life.
实际上在这里边真的是有很多的学问要谈的 In fact, there is really a lot of learning to talk about here.
所以简单的去尝试简单的卖进去了 So simply try and sell it.
后面不一定可以全身来退 It's not always possible to get back from behind.
那么在保险领域里面 So in the field of insurance
我们说它首先是一个雄厚的资金背景 We say it is first of all a strong financial background.
我觉得如果说我只谈一条它的特征 I think if I say only one of its characteristics
我就只留着一条 I only have one
他的资金链特别长 His financial chain is very long.
而且沉淀的资金特别多 And the amount of money deposited is very large.
再比如像泰康 Like tacon
它卖掉一个200万的一个保险 It sold a two million dollar insurance
像一个人卖掉一个200万的保单 Like a man selling a two million policy
其中大约只有80万左右投入它前期开发 Of these, only about 800,000 invested in its early development.
剩下120万就是沉淀下来的资金 The remaining 1.2 million is deposited funds.
还产生利息 Also generate interest
而且是它固有的资金可以慢慢的用 And its inherent funds can be used slowly.
所以它不像他面对的一个局面是钱如果不能回流怎么办 So it's not like he's facing a situation where money doesn't flow back.
你做后续没有这个问题 You don't have this problem.
另外一般来说养老这种保险类的这个企业它在产业链上 In addition, in general, the pension insurance category of this enterprise, it in the industrial chain.
特别是做人寿的这一类 Especially of this kind of life
它的产业链上一定会挂有医疗 There will be medical treatment on its industrial chain.
所以它有长期积累的熟悉的合作 So it has long accumulated familiar cooperation.
非常成熟的这样一些养老医疗的模式 ... a very mature model of care for the elderly.
所以也非常容易做好 So it's also very easy to do well.
所以说其实这确实是一个非常看好的一种模式 So in fact, this is a very good model.
它比它的后劲要足 It is stronger than its stamina.
而且通常来说 And usually
由于它有比较雄厚的资金做支持 Because it has relatively strong financial support.
所以前期哪怕不售出 So even if you don't sell it
全部采用一个持有的方式 All in one way
它也撑得住 It will hold
它本身不像他一样面临着一个前期慢慢熬出去 It itself is not like him faced with a pre-season slowly out.
一直到达到资金平衡的这样一个局面 Until the balance of funds reached such a situation.
再有我们说他常常可以自身能组建一定的管理一个团队 Again, we say that he can often form his own management of a certain team.
刚才我们说资金链 We were talking about the money chain
它的整个产业链很长 Its entire industrial chain is very long.
涉及到最后一种是比较传统的一个升级版 The last is a more traditional version of the upgrade.
我们说它比如像清河园是比较典型的这样一种模式 We say it, for example, like Qinghe garden is quite typical of such a model.
它一般来说项目的规模 It is generally the size of the project.
特别是前期的项目规模不会太大 In particular, the pre-project size will not be too large.
那么通过比较低的价格来获取土地 Then get the land at a lower price
这个时候里边有的时候存在违规的地方 At this time, there are sometimes irregularities.
所以其中的一部分出于种种原因可能就经营不下去 So some of it may not work for a variety of reasons.
于是我们就回过头来问 So we turned around and asked
说今天如果我们作为一个消费者 Today, if we were a consumer.
不管我们是60岁的老年人 Whether we are 60 years old.
还是我们是他的子女 Or are we his children?
我如果去买一辆这样的产品 If I go to buy a product like this
我可能也会问 I might ask
就是说老年人住进去了以后 That is to say, after the elderly live in.
五年以后它不存在了 Five years later, it doesn't exist.
怎么办 What to do
这个机构它自身就就消完了后被拆除了怎么办 The organization itself will be eliminated after the removal of what to do?
这个也是今天我们的民政部门不敢把他的基本托底的这一部分养老的 This is also today our civil affairs departments dare not put his basic foundation of this part of the old-age.
比例和床位数向社会打开的一个非常重要的原因 A very important reason for the ratio and the number of beds opening up to society
因为他出于种种原因 For a variety of reasons
可能自身要么破产了 Maybe they're either bankrupt
然后不能进也会被取缔了 Then if you can't get in, you'll be banned.
这里边的这些老年人其实是要我觉得在道义上 These old people here actually want me to feel morally
或者是在我不知道在行政上是不是有保证 Or is it because I do not know whether there is an administrative guarantee?
民政是不是应该都这个病 Civil affairs should not be all this disease.
当这些这么大量的一个床位数转交到民政的身上的时候 When these large numbers of beds were transferred to the civilian body.
压力多大可想而知 You can imagine the pressure.
所以本事很大的问题 So it's a big problem
项目一般来说都是以持有型为主的 Generally speaking, the project is mainly based on ownership.
据我所知的也是继和缘一直经营到他的第八年 As far as I know, it is also after the fate of the business until his eighth year.
就是去年它的账目上才开始平衡了 It was only last year that it began to balance its accounts.
它之前也仍然是亏损的状态 It was still a loss before
但是有意思的是到了第八年 But the interesting thing is that by the eighth year
当他终于看到曙光了 When he finally saw the light
说我大概可以开始赚钱的时候 Say I could probably start making money
就相应的部门来找他了 The corresponding department came to him.
说你现在也不是一个亏损企业 You are not a loss-making enterprise now.
而且你不符合我们所前面规定的一些减免税费的这样一个要求 Moreover, you do not meet some of the above provisions of the tax reduction and such a request.
所以现在我们可以减免税费的政策停止了 So now we can reduce the tax policy to stop.
他开始又面对着一个继续负增长的一个状态 He began to face a state of continued negative growth.
不知道要多久 I don't know how long it will take.
从盈利的模式上来来做分类 From the profit model to do the classification.
我们说可以做这样的几个分类 We said we could do some of these classifications
首先就是全部出售型的 First of all, it's all modular.
这种基本上是以这种概念养老住宅和一些养老设施 This is basically the concept of old-age residential and some old-age facilities.
特别是一些典型的地产为主的 Especially some typical real estate-oriented.
所以它主要是以出售房屋的产权为主 Therefore, it is mainly to sell the property rights of housing.
像万科像郁成 Like Vanke and Yu Cheng
基本上都用这种方式在做 It's basically done in this way.
好处是资金回笼比较快 The advantage is that the money is coming back faster.
那么像刚才我们说说老年人如果住进去了五年已经没有了 So, as we said just now, if the elderly live in five years, there is no longer.
然后我得到了什么 And what did I get?
我前妻付过的入门费 The entry fee my ex-wife paid
或者说每个月交付了这么长的时间的月费 Or the monthly fee paid for such a long time every month.
那我得到什么呢 What do I get?
从一个普通的消费者的心理上 From the psychology of an ordinary consumer
可能我觉得我们在座可能有相当数量的人也会想 Maybe I think there may be a considerable number of people here who think
那个时候总要抓住一样实实在在的东西 At that time, we should always grasp the same real thing.
咱们要说是应该就是房子 If we say yes, it should be a house.
所以市场上也非常接受用房地产的方式来做养老地产 Therefore, the market is also very acceptable to use real estate to do old-age real estate.
他现在想的其实就是我从来没有见到过 What he is thinking now is that I have never seen it.
我们还历史上还没有出现过是一家养老机构超过十年的服务期 We have not yet appeared in the history of an old-age institution for more than 10 years of service.
还能提供同样品质的这样的一种养老服务的 Capable of providing such an old-age service of the same quality.
如果假想说像中国社会上现在出现了很多洗发店等等 If you imagine that there are a lot of restaurants in Chinese society, and so on.
说我这个卡很快就没有用了 My card will soon be useless.
人家找不到的时候就起码还有一个产证 When they can't find it, there's at least one certificate of birth.
这房才是我 This is my room
所以双方对起来以后 So when the two sides meet,
养老地产本身作为地产的性质 The nature of old-age property as real estate itself
就超出他作为养老服务的这样一个载体的一个功能 It is beyond his function as such a carrier of old-age services.
但刚好我觉得这个理解上是有偏差 But I just think there is a discrepancy in this understanding.
如果双方都理解天杀出来的产品 If both sides understand what God has done
不可能是一个非常持久的产品 It can't be a very durable product.
第二种类型是销售加持有 The second type is sales plus holdings.
这种是目前比较常见的一种方式 This is now a more common way.
因为全部卖掉的结果很有可能像万科的良渚文化村一样 Because all the results of the sale is likely to be like Vanke's Liangzhu cultural village.
他可能没有办法保证像他承诺的一样 He may not be able to promise as he promised.
那么强的强度的一个养老服务的机遇 So strong an opportunity for old-age service
因为它也没有那么好 Because it's not that good
没有那么多的受重了 Not that much weight
所以当你有一部分持有的物业在手上的时候 So when you have a part of the property in hand
它可以比较持续的提供相应的养老服务 It can be more sustained to provide the corresponding old-age services.
而这一部分是它作为一个养老地产能继续存在下去 And this is part of it as a pension, real estate can continue to exist.
甚至慢慢在发展过程当中形成品牌效应非常重要的保证 Even slowly in the process of development, the formation of brand effect is very important to ensure that.
再有就是会员制 Then there is the membership system.
其实会员制是一个比较变相的一种这个叫出售加持有 In fact, membership system is a more disguised form of this is called selling plus holding.
那么因为会员像现在可能已经星河苑已经开始不卖它的A卡 Well, because members like now may have already started to sell its a card.
是可以转让给他转让可以继承给自己的子女或者是直系的亲属 Can be transferred to him, can be inherited to their children or immediate relatives.
所以他其实相当于把使用权甚至一部分意义上的产权开始向下传承 Therefore, he is actually equivalent to the right to use even part of the sense of the beginning of the property to the next inheritance.
这个是会员制的方式 This is a membership system
但这不是重点 But that's not the point
重点在于它更多的是以一个持有的方式提供服务 The point is that it is more of a holding way of providing services.
他是他的会员买了会员资格 He is his member and has bought membership.
然后入住进去 Then check in
通常方式会有一个入门费 Usually there is an entry fee
保证你的会员资格的取得 Guarantee your membership
还有一种是指只租不售 Another is that only rent is not sold.
这个方式是向燕达国际健康城 This approach is to yanda international health city.
大概就这种方式 Probably in this way
它基本上是根据不同类型的受众的收取不一样的资金 It is basically based on different types of audience, the collection of different funds.
这里面有一定的长期照料的概率在里面 There is a certain probability of long-term care in this.
还有他对老年人开始划分成不同类别的式子里的和半自理的和不能 And he began to divide the elderly into different categories of the formula, and semi-self-care and can not.
自理的 Self-care
包括失能的 Inedible
最后一种也是现在很时髦的一个方式 The last, and now very fashionable, one way.
我们叫候鸟式的分时度假的模式 We call it the pattern of birdlike time-sharing vacations
但是嫁接在一个分时度假的地产的项目基础之上 But grafting is based on a project of a time-consuming real estate.
产生出来的一个养老地产的概念 A concept of old-age property produced
代表我个人的一些思考 On behalf of my personal thoughts
对养老资产 Pension assets
第一我是觉得所有的养老地产发展到现在 First, I think all the old-age real estate development to now.
作为一个新生事物 As a new thing
它存在的时间短 It exists for a short time.
没有形成自己特定的成熟的一种供应的模式 A mode of supply that does not form its own particular maturity.
像日本或者是像美国 Like Japan or like America
我们会认定其中的一些这个模式它是可持续的 We will identify some of these patterns, which are sustainable.
它也是得到保证的 It is also guaranteed.
它有相应的机制 It has the corresponding mechanism.
现在的评估的机制和政府的保障机制在背后支持着他 The present assessment mechanism and the government's guarantee mechanism are behind him.
我们很放心 We are very relieved.
可在国内还没有形成 But in the country has not yet formed.
所以现在的养老地产 So now the old-age property
我们说首先它有一个特点 We say first of all it has a feature
就是它是福利性的事业 It is a welfare enterprise.
但是是市场化的经营 But it is a market-oriented operation.
一个很典型的这么一个特征 A very typical feature.
所以它的商业模式究竟怎样 So what is its business model?
好像还不是很明确 It doesn't seem clear yet.
至少还没有其中的任何一个模式被证明适合中国目前的现状 At least none of these models has proved to be suitable for China's current situation.
并且广为大家所接受 And widely accepted
这个品牌能够被大家接受 This brand can be accepted by everyone.
第二就是目前进入这个市场恐怕还得是资金非常雄厚 The second is to enter the market at present, I am afraid that the capital is very strong.
因为这个地产跟过去的地产不一样 Because this property is not the same as the property in the past.
它前期有一个漫长的资金回笼的一个缓慢的过程 It had a long, slow process of returning funds.
第二就是入住群体怎么来界定 The second is how to define the resident group.
当然我们可能会说是只要我有足够的支付能力 Of course, we may say that as long as I have enough ability to pay.
那我就入驻了 Then I'll be in.
还是还讨论什么 Or what else?
其实也不是那么简单 In fact, it is not so simple.
所以当你入住的人不做明确的界定 So when you check in the person does not make a clear definition.
而你作为一个机构也好 And you as an institution
作为的哪怕是地产的产品也好 As a product of real estate.
你提供的服务没有办法去兜住所有的需求的时候 The services you offer are not able to cover all the needs of the time.
可能会有风险 There may be risks.
有一部分老年人的健康的状况 ... the state of health of some of the elderly.
早期你可能也不知道 Early on, you may not know.
他比如他是失智老人 He is, for example, an old man who is out of his wits.
或者是刚刚开始是有认知症的老人 Or the elderly who have just begun to have cognitive problems.
他丢了在你的机构里面 He's lost in your organization.
那谁来负责任或者是其他的一些问题相应的 Then who is responsible or some other problem corresponding?
那么再有就是在盈利模式不太明确的时候 Then there is the profit model is not clear when.
就是现有的地产是比较多的 That is, the existing real estate is more.
是聚焦于那些支付能力很强的这部分老年人 Is focused on those who have a strong ability to pay this part of the elderly.
所以就说作为地产的特征还是非常的明显的 So it is said that as a property or the characteristics of the very obvious.
但事实上就是说有效的需求 But in fact, it means effective demand.
我就觉得是两头 I think it's two.
一头是支付能力非常强 One is the ability to pay is very strong.
你的产品可以很贵 Your product can be very expensive.
据说据老龄委的同事前两天开会 It is said that according to the staff of the commission, the meeting was held two days ago.
刚跟我说说北京开了一个太申祥和 Just told me that there was a great harmony in Beijing.
没去过 Never been there
说电费是18万 Say the electricity bill is 180,000
我觉得我以为我听错了 I think I thought I heard it wrong.
于是我就问我说 So I asked, and I said,
真的十八万十八万 Really 180,000 180,000
有机会一定要去看一看 If you have a chance, you must go and have a look.
不太知道这什么样的产品 I don't know what kind of product it is.
什么样的客户群体 What kind of customer group?
当年就是说泰康的渊源开到每个月3万 That is to say, the origin of Taikang was opened to 30,000 a month.
我都觉得这些人好有钱 I think these people are rich.
首先他们这很难去想象 First of all, it's hard for them to imagine.
所以它面对的是一个特定的一个制衡力极强的群体 So it faces a particular group with a strong sense of balance.
但实际上我们说另外一端 But actually we said the other end
有非常大的消费的潜力的是那些比较家人能够继续照料你自己没有 There is a great potential for spending that those who compare family can continue to care for themselves do not.
办法独立生活的这部分群体 Ways to live independently of this segment of the population
可能只不能选线的 You may not be able to select a line.
但它也是我们所说刚需这一部分群体 But it's also what we're saying that just needed this part of the group.
它其实也是非常重要的一个对象 It is also a very important object.
可是还是比较难界定 However, it is still difficult to define.
现在所以比较需要相关的部门是监理的部门 Now, therefore, the need for the relevant departments is the supervision of the department.
卫生的部门和医疗康复等等部门有一个相应的这样一个标准 There is a corresponding standard in the health and medical rehabilitation departments.
让我们知道他是一个什么样的群体 Let us know what kind of group he is.
怎么样来提供照料 How to provide care
事先我们应该做哪些法律文件来保障彼此的利益 What legal documents should we make in advance to protect each other's interests?
再有就是保障服务 Then there is the protection service.
如何保障服务和设施管理水平 How to guarantee the level of service and facilities management
以及持续运营还没有特别成功的经验 And there is no particularly successful experience in continuing operations.
在这一点上我们说持续运营本身 At this point, we say continuous operation itself.
像我们前面所讲的 As we said earlier
说五年之后它会怎样 Say what it will be like in five years
我们可能每个人都会问这样的问题 We may all ask such questions.
确实需要时间去做检验 It really takes time to do the test
再有就是他对团队的整合能力是要非常有要求的 There is also his ability to integrate the team is very required.
事实上我们现在养老地产不管是谁在做 In fact, we now old-age property, regardless of who is doing.
前面我们所说的三种主体 The three main bodies we talked about earlier
不管谁在做的 No matter who is doing it.
他都会觉得自己可以从头做到尾 He would feel like he could do it from the beginning to the end.
我既可以做房地产的开发 I can do real estate development.
我又可以提供医疗服务 I can also provide medical services.
我还能够提供更专业化的管理 I can also provide more professional management.
我甚至可以提供智能化的服务 I can even provide intelligent services.
但从美国的经验上来看 But from the experience of the United States
是在整个养老地产链条上 Is on the entire old-age real estate chain.
其实都是切是切成一个横段面的 In fact, are cut into a cross section of the surface.
每一个横断面呈都是一个专业化非常强的团队在做运营的 Each section is a highly specialized team in the operation.
如果你不签都是一家单位 If you don't sign, it's all a unit.
就一家开发商 Just one developer
中间的任何一个环节 Any link in the middle
一旦出现一定的问题的时候 When something goes wrong
也不可能见死不救 It's impossible not to save one's life
你会去救他 You'll save him
你是其他的资源可能就会有倾斜 If you are another resource, there may be a tilt.
于是慢慢的整体的水平就会下降 Then the overall level will slowly decline.
而不是说一个市场上非常完善的分工 Rather than a very perfect division of labor in a market
分工当中的就是专门管运营的这部分团队 Among the division of labor is the operation of this part of the team.
他既管的地产也管 He is in charge of both the estate and the estate.
那个项目可能在全国各地都有足够的分布 The project may be sufficiently distributed throughout the country.
等到他一旦其中的一个部分说他的这边的人员出了问题 Wait until he says one of the parts says there's something wrong with the people on his side
或者整体的水平出了问题 Or the overall level of the problem.
它是通过横向的方式来进行水平调节 It is horizontal regulation by way of horizontal adjustment.
而不是在一个项目内部把危机转嫁到其他的环节上 Rather than passing the crisis on to other links within one project
再有一个就是相关法律目前比较不健全 Another is that the relevant laws are not sound at present.
大家都看得到 Everyone can see
就相关的经营范围的评估机制 Evaluation mechanism for relevant business scope
你能够做 You can do it
你能不能做失能失智的 Can you do something stupid?
你如果做到的话 If you do
需要多少的服务人员来辅助一个老年人 How many service personnel are needed to assist an old man?
还是说你一个服务人员能够辅助两个三个还是七个老年人 Or are you a service worker who can help two, three or seven old people?
这都没有规定 There are no rules
所以这些都是直接会导致相关的质量得不到保障的一个重要的原因 Therefore, these are directly will lead to the relevant quality is not guaranteed an important reason.
最后就是说一个缺乏相应的金融土地还有配套政策的支持的这样一个 Finally, it is said that a lack of corresponding financial land and supporting policies such a.
问题 Problem
同样的也是代表我自己 The same is true of myself
我觉得有几个判断跟大家探讨 I think there are a few judgments to discuss with you.
第就是说整个市场我是觉得大概到2020年左右 In other words, I think the whole market will be around 2020.
从现在开始再往前看一个五年左右的时间 From now on, look forward for about five years.
可能会出现一定的引领模式 There may be some kind of lead pattern.
其实在这个领域里边是非常需要旗舰 In fact, in this area is very much in need of flagship.
比如说养老地产养老产业本身 For example, the old-age property pension industry itself.
它不完全是一个像公共资源一样这样的一个产品 It is not exactly a product like a public resource.
它其实就是一个有隔离的产品 It is actually an isolated product.
那我们会之前讨论过途经地方和跟一些其他专业的一些老师跟他们 Then we will have discussed the ways and places before, and with some other professional teachers and them.
讨论的时候 During the discussion
大家会提到一个字叫控制 You will mention a word called control.
所以我觉得在养老地产和养老产业里边是不是要宣传控制 Therefore, I think in the old-age property and the old-age industry inside is not to promote control.
我确实觉得在商业的这一部分应该是比较解放思想的 I really think that this part of business should be more emancipatory.
就是大家去尝试可能会失败 Is that if you try, you may fail.
但是只要有受众 But as long as there is audience
只要有人提供 As long as someone offers
其实这个模式是在不断的尝试过程当中可以已慢慢的得到检验的 In fact, this model is in the process of continuous trial, can have been slowly tested.
当然我们也可以从国外得到很多成熟的经验 Of course, we can also get a lot of mature experience from abroad.
可毕竟在中国这块土壤上究竟到底送出来的是什么 But after all, what exactly is being sent out of this soil in China?
还是要这块土壤自己去做检验 Or do you want this soil to be tested by yourself?
第二就是市场的核心机会 The second is the market's core opportunities.
像我们刚才说一头是比较低龄活跃的老人 As we have just said, one end is a relatively young and active elderly.
更多的要的是一个生活方式的改变 More important is a change in lifestyle.
用心的社交群 The social group of the mind
社交圈子 Social circle
或者是一个老的社交圈子 Or an old social circle
他要一个同样的一群同志人群 He wants the same group of comrades.
另外一个是专业的照料机构 The other is a professional care institution.
这一部分是面对那些刚需的 This part is faced with what is needed.
他已经失能失智无法自理的 He has lost his ability to take care of himself.
或者家人无法照料 Or the family can't take care of it.
还有一部分的机会是存在于社区的居家养老服务上 There is also a part of the opportunity to exist in the community at home pension services.
它可以有空间载体 It can have space carriers.
也可以完全是一个没有载体提供服务的这样的一个机构 Can also be a complete carrier to provide services to such a body.
但是机会非常的大 But the chances are very good
因为人口数量太大 Because the population is too large.
再一个就是对于养老地产四个字 Another is for the old-age real estate four words.
核心的是养老是服务 The core is that the old-age is service.
地产两个字其实只对于什么样一种类型的产品跟空间 Real estate two words in fact, only for what kind of a type of products with space.
第四是有一个高度分工协作的这样的一个需求 Fourth, there is a high degree of division of labor and coordination of such a demand.
刚才我们讲过的 What we just talked about
所以在这个链条上应该形成若干高度专业化的这样的团队彼此合作 Therefore, in this chain should form a number of highly specialized such teams to cooperate with each other.
再一个就是退出机制 Another is the exit mechanism.
连锁机制和异地一些保电力保险的一些延续 Chain mechanism and some extension of insurance in different places
目前也都没有明确的的机制来保障 At present, there is no clear mechanism to protect.
再有我们说旗舰还有一个一个服务的智能化 Then we say that the flagship also has a service intelligent.
就这不是我们今天的重点 That's not the point today.
但是智能化我相信在养老这个领域里是一个极大的应用 But intelligence, I believe in the field of pension is a great application.
目前尝试的大概有以下几种 There are probably some of the following
第一个是医疗远程医疗诊断 The first is medical telemedicine diagnosis.
还有医疗日志和你的健康档案等等 And medical journals and your health records and so on
能够保证一个老年人得到最准确最及时的救治 To ensure that an elderly person gets the most accurate and timely treatment.
同时甚至可以跟踪他的健康的状况 At the same time, he can even track his health.
第二种是监视 The second is surveillance
就是说能够看到老年人的行动轨迹在哪里停留 That is to say, you can see the movements of the elderly, where to stay.
是否摔倒 Whether to fall or not
有没有起床 Did you get up?
起床有没有回来等等是一个监视 Get up, have you come back, etc.
第三种是一个管理 The third is a management.
在养老机构或者是一个普通社区里边 In an institution for the aged or in an ordinary community
怎么样把这些信息有效的应用起来 How to apply this information effectively?
并且到应该传送到的对象的手上 And to the hand of the object that should be delivered
就是相应的服务能够及时的做头顶 That is, the corresponding services can be done in time overhead.
所以这是几个主要的应用 So these are the main applications
但是最后还有一个应用是机器人 But in the end, there is another application, the robot.
这个在我们国内目前可能还相对来说还没有那么多人 In our country, there may not be so many people at present.
没有那么多人特别感兴趣 Not so many people are particularly interested.
但机器人它不是说一个简单的像人一样的机器 But a robot, it doesn't mean a simple human-like machine.
它可以是很多样的 It can be very diverse
像我们看到德国人使用的手臂机械臂 As we can see, the arm robot arm used by the Germans
假如真的能够应用在一个养老机构里头 If it can be used in a pension institution
养老机构还是面对失比如失能的老年人 Old-age institutions are still facing old people who have lost their ability, for example.
他自己没有办法站起来会不方便站起来 He can't stand up by himself.
你可以通过机械手臂把他抱起来 You can pick him up with a mechanical arm
把他送到一个同一层里面一个公共的洗澡的地方 Take him to a common bathroom on the same floor
然后把它放下去 Then put it down
然后再把他抱起来把他送回来 Then pick him up and bring him back
其实这事听起来很简单 In fact, it sounds very simple.
但是应用会特别大 But the application will be very large.
所以机器人再有一种是现在跟刚刚兴起的可穿戴肯定是其中的一种 So there is another kind of robot that is now with the emerging wearable is certainly one of them.
有另外一种可穿戴变成植物了 There is another kind that can be worn and turned into a plant.
穿在身上 Put on
它能更及时的监测一些需要随访的人员的一些特殊的状况 It is more timely to monitor some of the need to follow-up personnel, some of the special situation.