那么第二堂课的内容是介绍我们的研究成果 So the second lesson is about our research.
我们用的数据是手机信令数据 The data we use is cell phone signaling data.
是上海的数据 It's the Shanghai data.
所以我们所有的成果都是关于上海 So all of our achievements are about Shanghai.
上海的空间分析 Spatial analysis of Shanghai
心灵数据刚才在杨俊彦老师那张分类表上面是在最顶端的位置 Mind data was just at the top of Mr. Yang Junyan's classified list.
最低端的 Lowest
它的好处在哪里呢 What are its advantages?
它首先样本的比例非常高 It starts with a very high percentage of samples
无论三家运营商你哪一家 No matter which of the three operators, which one of you?
都是几百万的 All millions
我们拿到的是不能说我们拿到我们允许我们使用的数据是中国移动 What we get is not to say that we get the data we allow us to use is China mobile.
他的样本量就是在千万接近2000万 His sample size is close to 20 million.
一千六一千七这样这么一个样本量 One thousand six thousand seven such a sample
第二个 The second
它是24小时 It's 24 hours
时间覆盖的非常全 Very full time coverage
24小时都在你的位置都在记录 24 hours in your position, all in the record.
那么他的记录的精度 So the accuracy of his record
我们用的是信令数据 We use signaling data
所谓信令数据 So-called signaling data
手机和基站之间定期进行通讯 Regular communication between cell phone and base station
相互确认的一种 Mutual confirmation
它和通话数据的不一样 It's not the same as the call data.
通话数据只有你打电话的时候才会有记录 The data will only be recorded when you call.
而信令数据你不打电话 And the signaling data you don't call
他也会每隔一定的时间来确认一下你在什么地方 He will also check at regular intervals where you are.
你是哪个基站跟你有效的联系 Which base station are you?
因此它是是被记录 So it is recorded
并不是主动 Not initiative
你要去微信的 You are going to wechat.
你微博你是主动记录 You micro-blog, you are active record.
他是被动 He is passive.
任何人都会进去 Anyone will go in
那么这样一种全样本全时覆盖空间信息的特质 So this is the quality of full-time coverage of spatial information.
它是居民空间活动最直接的一个记录 It is the most direct record of residents' space activities.
作为我以前一直研究居民的行为 As I used to study the behavior of residents
又是用定量方法研究居民的行为 It is to use the quantitative method to study the behavior of the residents.
所以拿到这个数字的时候 So when I got this number
我非常兴奋 I'm very excited
我甚至想我以后再也不要说去调查了 I don't even think I'll ever talk about investigating again.
问卷调查 Questionnaire survey
当然这是不可能的 Of course, this is impossible.
但是做问卷调查是调查中间的一个比较难的一个环节 But doing a questionnaire survey is a difficult link in the middle of the survey.
比较伤脑筋的一个环节 A more nerve-racking link
把那么多数据 Put so much data
几乎所有的行为都在里面 Almost all the actions are in it.
以后我就分析就坐在家里分析 I'll analyze it later and sit at home and analyze it.
这是当然天真的天真了一点 This is of course naive.
但是确实在某种程度上 But it does, to some extent
自从我开始做这个数据以后 Since I started doing this data
做问卷调查的时间就少很多了 There is much less time to do the questionnaire.
新的数据有四个信息 The new data has four information.
ABC ABC
第四个小题 The fourth question
有一个ID大家是不是很担心 There is an ID, we are not very worried.
好像这个信息都泄露了 It seems that the information has been leaked.
不用 No
大家可以看 You can see
这是一个新媒体 This is a new media
这是ID手机ID这么一个字符串里面没有任何的信息 This is ID, mobile phone ID, such a string, there is no information.
这个信息是加密的 This information is encrypted.
就加密了以后得出了一个唯一的识别号 It is encrypted and a unique identification number is obtained.
这就是一个手机一个sim卡 This is a mobile phone, a sim card.
sim卡它有一个识别号 Sim card it has an identification number
那么后面时间2009年6月6月26号 So later June 26, 2009
一个时间 One time
在后面是基站的编号 At the back is the number of the base station.
手机记录你的位置的时候 When your phone records your location
他不能精准的定位 He can't pinpoint the location.
你的这个是坐标 This is your coordinates
订不了 Can't make a reservation.
只能订到嘛基站 Can only be ordered to the base station
它基站采用的是双编号 Its base station uses a double number.
一个是这两个合起来就是一个具体的记载 One is that the two together is a specific record.
那么后面是一些状态指标 Then there are some status indicators
你这个手机处于什么一个状态 What is the state of your mobile phone?
这样一个就是这四个这可以说是信令数据中间最少的信息量 This is one of the four, which can be said to be signaling data in the middle of the minimum amount of information.
不止这些数据 More than that
不是这些信息 Not this information
但是一般他如果能够给你去拿去分析 But in general, if he can give you to take to analysis.
它会把它处理成这种就是一点隐私都没有的信息之后 It will deal with it like this, after information that has no privacy at all.
才有可能交到其他人 To be able to hand it over to someone else
当然这个数据它不是用来坐车是可以的 Of course, this data is not used for the car is OK.
心灵数据收集来 Mind data collection
他是运营商管理 He is the operator management.
就是基站满了没有 Is the base station full?
一直处于满足状态 Have been in a state of satisfaction
那就要再增加一个就增容了 That will add another one and it will increase the capacity.
或者内地没有人用这个基站的话就要撤掉了 Or if no one in the mainland uses this base station, it will be removed.
他是他内部管理 He is his internal management.
所以这个数据它不是为我们规划所收集的数据 So this data, it is not for us to plan the data collected.
因此像这些当然他是处理过的 So, like these, of course, he was dealt with.
它没有出现目的 It has no purpose
没有出行方式 No way to travel
而这些对于我们做规划的做交通的人都是至关重要 And these are the most important things for us to plan for traffic.
另外还有误差 There are also errors.
还有记录的缺失 And the absence of records
有这些误差 With these errors
虽然这样 Even so
这个数据依然是城市空间分析里面非常宝贵的数据 This data is still very valuable in urban space analysis.
那么我们说空间的精度 So we say the precision of space
它是以基站为单元 It is based on the base station.
那么这个鸡蛋的单空间精度有多大 So how accurate is the single space of this egg?
上海市一共是中国一共有36000多个鸡仔 There are more than 36000 chickens in Shanghai.
在中心城区可以说是密码 In the center of the city can be said to be the password.
相聚的大概100到300吨 About 100 to 300 tons
我们现在的手机信用 Our current mobile phone credit
街道哪个数据哪个基站 Street, which data, which base station?
在同济大学里面的基站在图书馆上面 The base station in Tongji university is above the library.
图书馆的上面大家也看一下一圈 The upper part of the library is also read by everyone.
各个方向几乎一圈 Almost a circle in all directions
三家运营商全在那边移动 All three operators are moving there.
中国电信联通 China telecom Unicom
所以密密麻麻我们现在都是街道内上去 So we are all going up in the street now.
那么到了郊区就要牺牲一点 Then you have to sacrifice a little when you get to the suburbs.
大概一公里到三公里 About one to three kilometers.
然后他的总的记录 Then his total record
刚才我们看到那一条就是一条记录 The one we saw just now is a record.
一共是每天4到八一条 It's four to eight one a day
周末少一点 Less weekends
可以用的多一点 It's a little more usable.
那么从这些机构中间我们可以再来数 So we can count from these institutions
还有多少用户 How many users are there
两周一共是2300万 It's 23 million in two weeks.
每天记录单大概是1600到1800 The daily record is about 1600 to 1800.
这个在他常住人口的70% This is 70% of his permanent population.
大家可能只会2300 You may only be able to do 2300
就有大量的流动人口 There is a large floating population
你从上海到火车站一走走了 You took a walk from Shanghai to the railway station.
经过一下你坐火车经过上海也会记录下来 After you pass by the train, you will also record it in Shanghai.
就这种人都在里面 That's the kind of person who's in there
所以都是2300 So it's all 2300
这些数据拿来我们做什么用 What do we do with these data?
可以说做很多的用 Can be said to do a lot of use.
首先当然这些数据拿来了 First of all, of course, the data came.
我们要把它变成一个可用的数据 We're going to turn it into a usable data
一个预测 A prediction
就是叫清洗的过程 It's called the cleaning process.
题型包括这方面 Questions include this
技术组合失败消漂移的消除异常这种技术 The technique of eliminating anomaly of technology combination failure drift
还有这些空间差异的消除 And the elimination of these spatial differences
那么当然这些工作我们现在也没有完全去做 Of course, we are not doing all this work now.
只是把一些明显有误差的把它去掉 Just get rid of some obvious errors
即使进行三清除清洗之后 Even after three cleaning
我们下面也要进行数据的训练 We are also going to do data training.
数据的训练叫做标签识别 Data training is called tag recognition.
那么这个要求有一定的时间段的数据 Then this requirement has a certain period of time data.
如果你只有一天的数据 If you only have one day's data.
你没办法进行识别 You can't identify it.
那么我们现在是有两周的数据 So now we have two weeks of data
所以通过两周的数据进行训练以后 So after two weeks of training
就可以知道这个用户他的居住地工作地 You can know where the user lives and where he works.
他的经常购物的地点 His regular place of shopping
休闲的地点等等 A place for leisure, etc
即使我们现在也可以做到几十个属性 Even now we can do dozens of attributes.
外出的距离频度 Distance frequency
那么这些东西进行标签识别之后就变成可用数据 So these things are labeled, and they become available data.
那么这个工作需要有稍微专业一点的同学来做 So this job needs to be done by a little more professional students.
做完以后变成这样的数据以后 After doing this, it becomes this kind of data.
基本上稍微懂一点基石 A little bit of a foundation
懂点数据库知识 Knowledge of database
就可以用来做你想做的事情 You can do what you want to do.
手机数据做出来的精度到底有多高呢 How high is the precision of the mobile phone data?
经常有人会来问这个问题 People often come to ask this question.
你们准不准 You are not allowed
我们可以回答你没有更准的数据 We can answer that you have no more accurate data.
所以这是最准的 So this is the most accurate.
没有更准的最准 There is no more accurate maximum.
那么你如果有更准的数据 So if you have more accurate data
我们就用 We'll use it
你能拿出来吗 Can you take it out?
拿不出来 Can't take it out.
当然我们还是尽量要回答 Of course, we will try our best to answer it.
我们还要相信这个数据是准确的 We must also believe that the data is accurate.
那么我们用五伏的数据 So we use five volts
六普的数据和我们手机识别出来的数据做了一个对比 The data of Liu pu is compared with the data identified by our mobile phone.
这是居住人口 This is the resident population.
人口普查它记录的是居住人口手机数据 The census records cell phone data of the resident population.
我们识别出来的居住人口 The number of people we recognize as living people
这两个图大家看一下 Let's have a look at these two pictures.
再做一个相关问题 Do another related problem
0.9还是相当高 0.9 is still quite high
那么还这里面已经相差四年 Well, there is already a difference of four years.
所以应该说我们还是坚信他用手机数据做出来的 So it should be said that we still firmly believe that he used mobile phone data to do.
它的一个大的结果是非常准确的 A big result of it is very accurate.
那么用这个数据可以做很多的事情 So with this data, you can do a lot of things.
目前我们把这个工作归纳成是这几方面 At present, we have summed up the work in these aspects.
一个是人口动态平衡 One is the dynamic balance of population.
人口的动态 Population dynamics
过去我们说城市的人口的时候 When we used to talk about the population of the city
它没有一个动态的概念 It doesn't have a dynamic concept
或者说它是动态 Or it's dynamic
就是去年前年这样一个动态 That is, the year before last year, such a dynamic.
现在我们拿到手机数据 Now we have the cell phone data
你再说人口 You say population
你必须说是什么时间的人 You must say what time is the person?
因为一天中的不同时间 Because at different times of the day
它的人口是不一样 Its population is different.
做一个动态评估 Make a dynamic assessment
第二个是建成环境的评估 The second is the assessment of the completed environment.
或者说规划实施的评估 Or assessment of planning and implementation
手机数据只能做有人活动的地方 Mobile phone data can only be used for activities.
它的一个情况 A case of it
那么这种活动的地方 So where this kind of activity
它反映的是这种建成环境的一系列的表现 It reflects a series of performances of this built environment.
所以我们要用这个数据来反过来看现场环境 So we're going to use this data to look at the environment in reverse
规划监测监控平台的构建 Construction of monitoring platform for planning and monitoring
城市中间的千变万化 The transmutation of the city
规划在实施 Planning is in progress
那么怎么样去知道他当前的状况 So how to know his current situation?
收集数据 Collect data
第四个就是对于特定设施和特定活动 The fourth is for specific facilities and activities.
这大数据可能大家觉得做大东西是不是它的优势 This big data may be that we feel that making big things is not its advantage.
其实大数据它的优势在于做小东西 In fact, big data, its advantage is to do small things.
各种各样的小玩意 All kinds of gadgets
他能做大的当然可以做 He can do it big, of course.
但大的 But big
除此之外 Beyond that
你这个图你无限放大以后可以看到它里面的系统 You can see the system in this picture after you enlarge it indefinitely.
这个是小数据你做不到的 This is a little data you can't do.
那么这样一种内容的东西 So something like that
我们把它变成一个成果 We turned it into a result
叫一套现状图 Call it a set of current situation maps
一种指标体系和持续的规划管理编制支撑系统 An index system and sustainable planning management system
一套现状图 A set of current situation maps
就这里我们评估这些现代环境都反映在图上面 Here we assess these modern environments as reflected in the picture.
图这个图可以定期一年出一套 This graph can be produced on a regular basis every year.
根据手机数据更新 Update according to cell phone data
对吧 Right
头头也在更新 The boss is also updating.
一组指标体系 A set of index system
根据这一种状态 According to this state
我们算出一系列的指标 We worked out a series of indicators.
这个指标来反映城市的不同的侧面 This indicator reflects the different aspects of the city.
这也是定期可以来定期来发布这些资料 This is also a regular time to release this information on a regular basis.
同时可以用这个数据来构建一个规划管理的动态监测监控系统 At the same time, this data can be used to build a planning and management of the dynamic monitoring and monitoring system.
那么这样图或者指标在空间单元上可以做整个市市域的全上海市的 Then, such a map or indicators in the space unit can be done throughout the city of Shanghai.
也可以做到 Can also do
市区或者区县 Urban area or district county
甚至做到控规单元或者街道 Even to the control unit or street.
所以它的应用应该说空间非常大 So its application should say that the space is very large.
绝对不是说做一次就做完了 It's definitely not done once
做馆永远做 Make a house and always do it
那么还有特定的设施 Then there are certain facilities
足球场歌舞厅 Football stadium dance hall
就特定设施还可以做 It can be done with respect to specific facilities.
那么更要强调的 So much more important
我这里写了一句话 I wrote a sentence here.
手机姓名数据也在更新计划总结 Mobile phone name data is also updating the summary of the plan.
我们现在拿到的手机数据和几年前他们拿到的手机数据已经不一样了 The data we now have on mobile phones is not the same as the data they received a few years ago.
包括精度 Including accuracy
包括什么东西 Include something
它本身也在进化中间 It itself is in the middle of evolution
包括精度4G的精度技术非常高 The precision technology including the precision of 4G is very high.
我们现在还没有这个机会用4G的新闻数据 We haven't had the opportunity to use 4G news data yet
而且我们可以想象一下5G6G7G那是一种什么数据 And we can imagine what kind of data is 5g6g7g
我们什么事不能做 We can't do anything.
需要 Need
所以大家有兴趣 So everyone is interested
真的是可以考虑一下往这个方向发展 It is really possible to consider developing in this direction.