就提出了咱们注意环境问题 It raises the question of our attention to the environment.
然后到1987年联合国世界环境发展委员会发展的一个报告政策 Then, in 1987, the United nations world commission for environmental development developed a reporting policy.
提出可持续发展的概念 Put forward the concept of sustainable development.
他提出来 He brought it up
他1987年提出来可持续发展 He proposed sustainable development in 1987.
然后到92年从62年走整整30年 And then in '92, 30 years from' 62
人活该可持续发展 Human beings deserve sustainable development
下了个定义 A definition
下了个什么定义 What is the definition?
叫这么说 Say so
可持续发展是既满足当代人的需要 Sustainable development is to meet the needs of the present generation.
也不为节后的人需要的发展 And not for the post-festival development
这种发展既满足当代的需要 This development meets contemporary needs.
也不满月不危害 It's no harm to be dissatisfied with the month.
后面的话就这样的定义 That's the definition of the latter.
说对了也对 That's right.
说不对的话不可操作 If you say something wrong, you can't operate it.
什么叫不满足 What do you mean dissatisfied?
什么叫不危害是吧 What do you mean, no harm?
什么叫不还现在放在我也不问 What do you mean, no, it's still on now, and I won't ask.
谁都说不清楚 No one can say it clearly.
所以说不清楚 So it's not clear
等于做都废话套话之类 It's like making all the nonsense and so on.
那么一直到1998年 So until 1998
一个叫ball博客 A blog called ball
他们提出慈迹可循化 They put forward the idea of a trace
可持续发展最重要的应该实现 The most important thing for sustainable development should be realized.
可怕不行 Terrible
我的发展不要是环境系统系超过它的阈值 My development is not that the environmental system exceeds its threshold.
就不超过他 Not more than him
一直他就能自己恢复 He'll be able to recover himself all the time.
这样就会影响后面的发展 This will affect the development of the future.
就这么概念 That's the concept
所以可康复是非常重要的一个可持续发展的理念 So rehabilitation is a very important concept of sustainable development.
非常这个理念 Very this idea
非常改变的这么个理念 A very different idea
但是光有这么个可康复的概念 But there's this concept of rehabilitation
我怎么能做到可康复 How can I recover
有大量的研究要做 There is a lot of research to be done.
有大量的工作要做 There is a lot of work to be done.
所以这可康复性 So this can be restorative
实际上今后将会引领我们各行各业 In fact, it will lead us in all walks of life in the future.
特别是我们土木工程 Especially our civil engineering
我们规划成城镇化建设 We have planned for urbanization
至少引领50年到100年的发展 At least 50 to 100 years of development
这个概念 This concept
可看护的概念会引领我们今后50年到100年的发展这么一个思想 The concept of care will lead us to the next 50 to 100 years of development of such an idea.
那么可发掘和持续符合 Then it can be explored and continued to conform.
非要再继续谈这个 We have to go on talking about this
所以说可靠自康复性是实现可持续发展的最理性最具体最改变的措施 Therefore, reliable self-recovery is the most rational, most concrete and most changing measure to achieve sustainable development.
要不然过去可持续发展的是很空洞的概念很空洞 Otherwise, the concept of sustainable development in the past is very empty.
城镇化建设更要有志康和建设为目标 The goal of urbanization is to have health and construction.
所以自康博建设非常重要的概念是实现可持续发展 Therefore, since the construction of Kang Bo is very important to realize the concept of sustainable development.
非常重要的一个具体的就改变最理性的概念 It is very important to change the concept of the most rational.
绝对不是打架油 It's definitely not rack oil.
智康复概念 Concept of mental rehabilitation
不是导向油 Not guide oil
那么第三个字 So the third word
干部建设的专业技术什么关键技术上至高级的关键涉及到这几个问题 The professional technology of cadre construction, what key technology is highest, the key involves these problems.
各个系统都这样 All systems are like this
第一的目标参数用什么目标参数来定义 What target parameters are used to define the first target parameters?
我的字康复 My word recovered
比如说大家知道一开始讲我们讲物理 For example, you know, at the beginning, we talked about physics.
弹性强度 Elastic strength
较实用理财 More practical financial management
那么我讲农业参数什么指标 So what are the parameters of agriculture?
叫生姜人体免疫力 Called ginger human immunity
是什么指标 What is the index?
我叫森林 My name is forest
什么是表达 What is expression?
用什么参数来表达质量 What parameters are used to express mass?
服 Take
我们根据科学问题 We are based on scientific questions.
第二确定阈值 Second set threshold
当然这个指标定下来要达到什么程度 Of course, the target set to achieve the degree.
他只看货能力具有超过这个就不再具有了这个月 He only looks at the goods and has more ability than this, he will not have this month.
只要把它搞起来 Just get it together
大概位置 Approximate position
这是科学问题 This is a scientific problem.
需要做大量的调查研究 A great deal of research is needed.
甚至实验才能把它发掘 Even experiments can discover it.
第三个就我现在系统的现状 The third is the status of my current system.
离开一直有多元 There's always multiple to leave
还有多少你可以折腾 How much more can you do?
你可以把这造了 You can make this
都没人叫赵 Nobody calls Zhao
是不是 Isn't it
就把这个空间找出来 Just find this space
目前的状况和我的预知还有多少范围 What is the current situation and my prediction?
还有很重要概念叫做抗力系统的抗力 There is also a very important concept called the resistance of the system.
就是我跟他发生了多大的干扰变化 It's how much interference I've had with him.
它会造成多造的危害 It can cause a lot of harm.
我们刚才谈一的时候 When we were just talking
就因为应变曲线对阴蒂也被血 The clitoris is bleeding just because of the strain curve
那么它也是系统的一个系统抗力曲线 Then it is also a system resistance curve of the system.
你把系统康的全要放进去 You put everything in the system
能把系统的抗体区现在高速抗体 The antibody region that can turn the system into a high-speed antibody
什么是抗力 What is resistance?
抗力怎么变化 How does resistance change?
所以这几个是一个基本的科学问题 So these are a basic scientific problem.
也稿子高峰的必须要搞得清清楚楚 It is also necessary to make it clear that the draft is at its peak.
B要搞清楚 B make sure
不搞清楚不行了 We can't make it clear.
特别是我们将来搞城市 In particular, we will build cities in the future.
你搞土木工程灾害 You do civil engineering disaster
那么从而在不同的在他的抗力范围是什么 So what is the difference in his resistance range?
它的预知什么都发现 It's known for everything.
第三个就是我今天要讲这个问题 The third is that I want to talk about this problem today.
怎么建设具有资产和能力沉淀的几点设想 Some ideas on how to build assets and ability precipitation
因为这个理念全世界还是一个理念 Because this idea, the world is still an idea.
这个要做到的还是很还没有很像样的东西来做 There is still no decent thing to do.
不能做 Cannot do
我们很幸运的 We're lucky
我们在大概在67年以前就开始做项工作 We started a job about 67 years ago.
但是我们当时不叫智康复 But we didn't call it wise to recover.
努力从另外角度来做事情 Try to do things from another angle.
正好和支撑完全不谋而合的 Exactly the same as the support.
所以我今天把你变成简单概念 So I turned you into a simple concept today
跟大家介绍一下 Let me introduce you to you.
怎么建设具有防灾治康复农业城镇体系若干设想和设想 How to construct an agricultural town system with disaster prevention and treatment and rehabilitation
对城市的房价智康复能力 Ability to recover housing prices in cities
第一要改革科学定义 First, we should reform the scientific definition.
什么叫城镇的房 What do you mean, a house in a town?
真的是康复能力 It's really the ability to recover
你首先给出科学定义 You give the scientific definition first
大家想一想怎么给出科学定 Let's think about how to give a scientific decision.
以及怎么改出相应的评价诊治 And how to change the corresponding evaluation diagnosis and treatment?
我给他定义了 I defined him
那我城市到底是具有多造我们这我怎么去测评它 How can I evaluate it?
怎么去评价 How to evaluate
用什么东西来评价他 Judge him by what
这是一个很重要的科学问题要解决 This is a very important scientific problem to solve.
第二要提出一种可供食用的防灾自康复能力评价方法评价体系 Secondly, an evaluation system for the ability of self-rehabilitation of disaster prevention is proposed.
这个很具体 This is very specific
把三个问题接个具体化上面的准则 Take the three questions and put the above criteria into concrete form
通过什么来评价油 By what?
还没有下面的具体的体系评价的体系 There is no specific system of evaluation below.
这是两个概念 These are two concepts.
第三个实现城镇自康复性的具体措施 The third concrete measures to realize the rehabilitation of cities and towns
怎么能实现达到你的评价指标得出现 How can you achieve your evaluation target?
所以说这样的话 So say that
我们就过去有些初步执行 We have some initial implementation in the past
就初步设想 On a preliminary assumption
第一个 The first
比如说被评价准则再订一篇准则 For example, to be evaluated by the criteria of another set of criteria.
我们评一个城市的地震来讲 We comment on the earthquake in a city.
防震减灾能力 Earthquake prevention and disaster reduction capability
那么一个评价指标 So an evaluation indicator
我们提出三个指标 We propose three indicators.
不是一个指标 Not an indicator
是多次多参数的指标 Is an indicator of multiple parameters
我们提出一个是人员伤亡的数量 We propose a number of casualties.
一个经济损失的数量 The amount of an economic loss.
应该挣脱恢复所需要的时间 Should break free of the time needed to recover.
大家说了你地震不发生没死人 Everyone said that you did not have an earthquake, no dead people.
没房子 No house
你怎么知道这些参数吗 How do you know these parameters?
是吧 Right
不是这样的 That's not true
因为根据我们现在的科学发展 Because according to our current scientific development
我们现在已经具备初步具备你的城镇里边的房子怎么构造怎么设防 We now have the initial possession of your town inside the house, how to build, how security?
你的体系怎么建立 How do you build your system?
发生多大的应该是多少人 How many people should it be?
一般多少心思 How much thought?
我们都可以预先估算出来 We can all estimate it in advance.
根据预算估算出来的结果 Results estimated on the basis of budget
来看一看这个城市有没有自己来防御这个能力 Let's see if the city can defend itself.
承受这个能力 Bear this ability
没有 No
你超过阈值了有 You're over the threshold there's
你就可以 You can
发生以后 After happening
你可以自己靠自己力量恢复 You can recover on your own.
不需要靠人家来救援 No need to rely on others to help.
就直接可以恢复 Can be restored directly
就这么一个三个指标 Just one of three indicators
这三个指标实际上多是一个很复杂的函数 These three indicators are actually a very complex function.
比如人员伤亡数量跟什么有关系 For example, the number of casualties is related to what?
跟地震大小有关系 It has to do with the size of the earthquake.
跟结构有关系 Have something to do with structure
这跟好坏有关系 It has to do with good or bad.
跟房屋结构跟地震发生时间是半夜里发生的 And the structure of the house and the earthquake happened in the middle of the night.
还是下午上班时候发生的事 Or what happened at work in the afternoon?
跟你里边这个大人小孩受没受过训练都有关系是很复杂的一个孩子 It has something to do with whether you are an adult or a child trained or not.
不管是都不要谈 Don't talk about it either way.
这同样是很普通寒 This is also very common cold.
而这个也是很复杂很多很多多因素造成的 And this is also very complicated, many, many factors.
所以这里面需要大家来研究 So we need to study it.
需要我们光学本科不行 We can't do without an undergraduate degree in optics.
要需要硕士博士毕业来研究这个东西 It takes a master's degree to study this.
是批斗多了还是患儿 Is it too much or is it a child?
这个东西不是独立的 This thing is not independent.
所以这个东西和中学不是独立的 So this thing and middle school are not independent.
比如说我政府恢复需要多少时间 For example, how long will it take for the government to recover?
这涉及到我的就业率 This involves my employment rate.
涉及到我的应急措施 My emergency response
都有关系是吧 It all matters, doesn't it?
而这个东西跟美国跟应急措施都没关系 And this thing has nothing to do with the United States or emergency measures.
死了就死了 Die when you die
它跟前面这三个东西是独立的 It is independent of the three things in front of it.
表面上看来看不出独立 On the face of it, there seems to be no independence.
好像地震大了这个大 It seems that the earthquake is big, this is big.
这也大部分是吧 That's mostly right
但实际上还有反应不同的内涵在里面 But in fact, there are different reactions in the content.
那就我们三个参数来表示 Then we have three parameters to express.
他的就是说来描述它的可康复性的参数 What he means is to describe the parameters of its resilience.
只要这三个数字不要超过一定的值 As long as these three figures do not exceed a certain value.
就我们讲的阈值 The threshold we're talking about
那么这个城市在仿真上我们就具有是靠步行超过了 So the city in simulation, we have to walk over.
那么这个就没有了 Then this is gone
但是现在我据我们初步的研究结果 But now, based on our preliminary findings,
要达到这种自康步行能力非常严格 To achieve this kind of walking ability is very strict.
要求非常高 Very demanding
换句话说就是说要地震来了以后 In other words, after the earthquake came.
跟八戒地震了以后 After the earthquake with Bajie
像北京这样城市大概真的是不能超过20个人 There are probably no more than 20 people in a city like Beijing.
超过20个人他就没事康复能 More than 20 people, he'll be fine.
按照我们现在基础就非常严格 According to our present foundation, it is very strict.
所以我们后来提出一个方案 So we came up with a plan
我们讲第一要诚实实现智康复 We should first of all be honest and realize the recovery of wisdom.
第二 Second
我们要实在做不到 We really can't do it.
我们有个备案 We have a record
要做可康复 To make a recovery
第一指标做智康复 The first indicator is mental rehabilitation
第二标志叫可康复 The second sign is rehabilitation.
第三标准较难康复 The third criterion is more difficult to recover.
第四个标准叫不可抗父 The fourth standard is called unbreakable parent
就四个标准 Just four criteria
博客看我什么意思 What do I mean by blog?
就是你地震发障碍发生以后 It is after your earthquake.
你可能要靠政府来救援 You may have to rely on the government for help.
你可能要把大量靠自己的力量不行了 You may have to rely on your own strength.
就这么一个体系 Just one system
所以将来我们搞城镇规划时候 So in the future, when we will make town planning
他也是要这么考虑 That's what he's thinking
你首先定个指标 You set a target first
你到底实现制康复 Do you really make a recovery?
还是这些可看护 Or are these caretakers?
而这些难康复还是不可靠中报 And these are difficult to recover or unreliable newspaper.
这样的话他们到的投入是一样 In that case, they will have the same input.
投入不一样 Input is different
另外评价抵制城市就这样在遭遇目标地震以后 In addition, the evaluation of the boycott of the city, in this way, after the encounter with the target earthquake.
到一个目标提升以后 After a goal is promoted
多大地震七件八届九届 What are the seven earthquakes, eight times and nine times?
是不是 Isn't it
三项指标要满足或者小于改变的自康和预支 Three indicators to meet or less than the change of self-health and advance.
这个就是我们要讲的 This is what we are going to talk about.
关于治康复的一个参数 A parameter on treatment and rehabilitation
评价指标 Evaluation index
这就评价指标 This is the evaluation index.
实现这些评价指标以后 After the achievement of these evaluation indicators
才能够真正能做到要做到是客户 To be able to really do it is the customer.
另外你三个指标出来了 In addition, you have three indicators.
是吧 Right
哪个指标最重要 Which indicator is the most important?
如果满足两个指标 If two indicators are met
第三指标不满足怎么办 What to do if the third indicator is not satisfied?
我在满足一个指标 I'm meeting a target
那两个指标不满足怎么办 What if the two indicators are not satisfied?
所以我们还要通过我们通过成绩分析法特别棒 So we have to pass us through the score analysis method to be particularly good.
那么三全三个指标权数经营 So three whole three index weights management
反复的统计 Repeated statistics
请专家来投票 Invite experts to vote
然后定的这么一个结果 And then set such a result.
就人员伤亡占总的指标要全省达到55% On the total number of casualties to reach 55% indicators throughout the province.
经济损失要达到32% The economic loss should reach 32%.
恢复时间是13% Recovery time is 13%.
这么个指标 Such an indicator
这就这样可以计算个全数 This allows you to calculate the whole number.
假如我们两个指标来做 If we do two indicators
第三指标不满足 The third indicator is not satisfied.
在前一个指标碰到要看最后的综合来评定 In the previous index encountered to see the final synthesis to assess.
看它能不能实现这个东西 See if it can achieve this.
所以这也是个非常细的一个东西 So this is also a very thin thing.
有非常多的东西 There are so many things
那么这里面特别要讲一下 So there's something special about this
像现在我们的科学问题非常难 Like now, our scientific problems are very difficult.
不是钱学森那时候的科学问题 Not Qian Xuesen's scientific problems at that time
他们比较那时候比较容易 They are easier than they were then.
我们的科学问题难在什么地方 Where is our scientific problem?
像这类问题难在什么地方 Where is the difficulty of such a problem?
主要难在第一这里所讲的问题 The main problem is the first one.
全是属于非线性问题 All are nonlinear problems.
不是像我们过去学的叫线性问题 It's not linear, as we used to learn.
不是都属于非线性问题 Not all are nonlinear problems.
第二 Second
这里面所讲的各种参数关系都不是过去我们学的叫做因果关系满足 All the parameters mentioned in this paper are not in the past, what we have learned is called causality satisfaction.
因果关系 Causation
什么叫麻醉因果关系 What is the cause and effect of anesthesia?
就可以用微分方程代数方程来描述 It can be described by algebraic equations of differential equations.
这叫做满足因果关系 This is called satisfying causality.
而这些关系都没办法 And none of these relationships can be helped
用代数方程为疯狂的能力 The ability to use algebraic equations as insanity
第三个这里有大量的不确定性 Third, there is a lot of uncertainty.
过去我们研究科学都很确定 We used to be very sure about science.
都很简单 It's very simple
大量的布局 Massive layout
就变化因素非常多 There are many factors to change.
所以我们现在这些问题都是难怎么办 So now we have these problems are difficult to do.
要大量统计 Need a lot of statistics
甚至要利用大数据理论来满足要解决这些问题 It is even necessary to use big data's theory to satisfy these problems.
所以我想简单说一说这些参数制定 So I would like to say briefly that these parameters are formulated
以及整个定的阈值完全可以做到 And the entire threshold can be achieved.
但是不能像过去那么就是说就叫精确 But it can't be as accurate as it used to be.
延时不意思不可这么做到不合法的 Delay does not mean to do so illegal.
那么当中学姐科学问题 Then senior middle school students' scientific problems
还有像科学 And like science
比如说要研究城镇自治化合物定义的定义 For example, to study the definition of urban autonomy compounds.
刚才说到制定相应的评价组织当天也说过 Just said that the formulation of the corresponding evaluation organization said the same day.
第二 Second
寻找影响城市防灾是康复能力的各种因素和定量 Finding out the factors and quantity that influence the urban disaster prevention is the ability of rehabilitation
也有他们影响 They have their influence
我至康复能力定义了 I have defined my ability to recover.
评价准确 Accurate evaluation
也有了 There are
是吧 Right
你还要研究影响 You have to study the impact
这需能力有哪些因素 What factors are required for this ability?
第二造成人员伤亡有哪些因素 Second, what are the factors causing casualties?
是吧 Right
造成你经济损失有哪些因素 What are the factors causing your financial loss?
比如说我的城市很穷 For example, my city is very poor.
你地震发生可能损失不了多少 You may not lose much in the earthquake.
东西也很穷 Things are also very poor.
如果在甚至局长傅 If even secretary fu
你首先就大了 You are big first
是吧 Right
所以跟他的社会体系服务社会财富政治体系都有关系 Therefore, it has to do with his social system, serving the social wealth and political system.
假如我这个政府执行能力很强 If I were a strong executive
说是说干就干 Say it and do it
说做就做 Do as you say
他执行的防灾措施非常严谨 The precautions he carried out were very strict.
就加快 Just speed up
损失很小 The loss is small
但有的政府拖拖拉拉不做 But some governments are dragging their feet
那就会损失比较大 That would be a big loss
所以它涉及到很多我们叫做影响因素 So it involves a lot of what we call influencing factors
然后这些影响因素又怎么样子 And what about these factors
对你你的评价体系产生影响 Have an impact on your evaluation system
这都需要我们需要研究 It all needs to be studied.
第三个怎么确定城镇未来地区的自康复能力的预制和安全空间 Third, how to determine the future of urban areas of self-rehabilitation capacity of prefabricated and safe space.
刚才已经说怎么根据这些因素和准则来测定一个城市的市康复能力 Just now I have said how to measure the city's rehabilitation ability according to these factors and criteria.
这些科学问题多死有待于我们应该去解决 These scientific problems have to be solved.
怎么研究 How to study
将研究得到结果运用到实际层面当中去 Apply the results of the research to the practical level.
像这些问题一个问题都要去我们经过仔细的调查 We have to go through a careful investigation of every problem like these.
确切的数据 Exact data
反复的严密的统计这些东西来出来 To count these things over and over again.
甚至要有专家来进行评估 Even an expert is needed to make an assessment.
政府的能力是吧 The ability of the government, right?
你都要在评估是吧 You have to evaluate, right?
等等 Wait
那么这里面我们讲到因素要考虑很多因素 Well, we talked about factors in this, we have to consider a lot of factors.
考虑哪些因素 What factors are considered?
这里有这么几个 Here are a few
所以我们一般来讲 So we generally talk about
应对灾害或者突发事件 Responding to disasters or emergencies
一个一般原则一般原则 A general principle
这也是很重要的问题 This is also a very important issue.
叫因为这个原则非常多 Because there are so many principles
你要人家讲几百条几千条都可以 You can ask someone to say hundreds of thousands of them.
但是我把它概括成这么几个 But I summed it up in a few
非常容易进 Very easy to get in
不要任性 Don't be headstrong
后来又被联合国采纳了 Later, it was adopted by the United nations.
不管叫什么 Whatever it is called
从突破世界管理角度来看 From the perspective of breaking through world management
可以分为所有措施 Can be divided into all measures.
可以分为两类 Can be divided into two categories.
一个叫灾前的事前的措施 A pre-disaster measure
又叫事后的措施 Also known as ex post facto measures
那么之前的做事我可以把它分成叫配一般人卖掉 Then I can divide it into two parts for the average person to sell.
把它分成叫做四个P用四个P来概括 Divide it into four p and sum it up with four p
哪四个 Which four
P呢 P
第一个P叫pad The first p is called pad.
规划咱们吴老师搞规划 Plan our teacher Wu for planning
这就是搞规划计划 This is planning
第二叫改革性预测预报 The second is the forecast of reform.
预测事件发生的概率 Probability of prediction of event occurrence
第三叫平原型预防 Third, flat prototype prevention
采用工程措施 Adopt engineering measures
预防和非工程措施也好 Preventive and non-engineering measures
什么叫非工程所预防 What is not engineering prevention?
比如说演练 Like a drill
譬如说我的科普教育等等 For example, my science education and so on.
都叫做非工程措施 It's called non-engineering measures
还有一个叫预警备忘里预警 There is also a warning called the warning note.
那么四个PP打头的 So four pp heads
还有个灾后的措施 There's a post-disaster approach
是否说是我叫的 Is it my name?
我用四个二来概括四个二pos I use four two to sum up four two pos
一般卖93后的措施有12个变数 There are 12 variables in the measure after the general sale of 93.
第二叫sq The second name is sq
sq什么意思 What do you mean by sq?
就人到肺里瓦堆里面把人救出来 And they went to the pulpit and rescued the man
第二个叫比例叫救济 The second is called proportional relief.
救济跟救人不一样 Relief is not the same as saving people.
就记什么 Just remember what
对幸存者还活着的人 To the survivors who are still alive
给他必要的粮食 Give him the necessary food.
给他必要的 Give him what is necessary
因为给他帐篷 Because give him a tent
跟他毯子 And his blanket
给他必要的医疗条件 Give him the necessary medical conditions.
让他进行必要的医疗防御 Let him take the necessary medical precautions