好了 All right
我把两个场景给大家描述 I will describe the two scenes to you.
这就是一个智力城镇化的讥诮 This is a mockery of Intelligence's urbanization.
转型和一个历史的简单的城镇化 Transformation and a historical simple urbanization
体育城镇化的连续两种情况都等待着大家 The two conditions of sports urbanization are waiting for you.
我们今天的同学都很清楚 Our classmates are very clear today.
你们在50岁的时候的两个中国都在等待着大家 When you were 50 years old, both China were waiting for you.
也就是说到75%的时候已经分差非常明显 That is to say, by the time of 75%, the difference is very obvious.
75的时候 At 75
努力也可以达到 Efforts can also be achieved.
但是在高城镇化下面 But under high urbanization
中国有两种不同的生活和生产的方式等待着我们在座的同学 There are two different ways of life and production in China, waiting for our classmates here.
今天是15年 Today is 15 years.
25年就很清楚 25 years is clear
你们25年是大概在30多岁 You're in your twenties, probably in your thirties.
到35年的时候我可以告诉大家 By 35, I can tell you.
已经定局了 It's settled
定居了中国就彻底定居了 Once settled in China, they settled down completely.
这个事情定居了 The matter has settled down.
35年你们是40多岁 You are over 40 years old.
人生最好的 The best in life
培养了那么多年爸爸妈妈学校 After so many years of training, mom and dad school.
都你们自己工作了那么多年 All of you have worked for so many years.
就在这个时候40多岁的时候 At this time in his forties
在对社会起栋梁作用的时候 At a time when it is a pillar of society
主管整个社会 In charge of society as a whole
主管整个中国城市的是你们两种生活就在这里 In charge of the whole Chinese city, you two live here.
我们回顾一下中国30年的就是我刚才说的这次人民共和国以后 When we look back on China for 30 years, it is after the people's Republic that I have just said.
49年我们在这个点上开始起 We started at this point in 49.
58年的时候可以上去 You can go up in '58
后来六个月第一次反 For the first time in six months
反翘 Back warping
当时就是说大家能够不在城市生活的人 At that time, that is to say, people can not live in the city.
一个向上海一家一家户户都去说做思想工作 Every family in Shanghai will talk and do ideological work.
让你们回乡 Let you go home
不要在城市里面 Don't be in the city
没有那么多的 Not so much
所以就进入了第一个实战 So we went into the first combat
然后是在文化大革命期间就彻底道路城镇里面的同学们的父母亲 Then, during the cultural revolution, the parents of the students in the cities and towns were completely destroyed.
甚至你们的大伯以上 Even more than your uncle
比你们父母亲更老点 Older than your parents
我估计你们的父亲应该是在60年代后期的 I guess your father was in the late '60s.
这是60年代后期 This is the late '60s
那么回叫知识青年上山下乡 Then call on the educated youth to go to the mountains and go to the countryside.
倒着走 Walk backwards
开始 Start
这个城市里面不断的往外迁 The city is constantly moving out.
到了我们接下去的时候 It's time for us to go on.
17.9 17.9
届大学 Junior university
到了2013年 By 2013
我们就到了一个非常重要的关键的节点 We have reached a very important and critical node.
就50% Just 50%
2012年2012年一年 2012 year 2012
12年的春天 Twelve years of spring
就中国历史上完成了一件非常重要的事情 A very important thing has been accomplished in the history of China.
都在阻止 Are stopping
他就到中学的时候 He arrived at the middle school.
完成了中国历史上5000年积累的文明第一次 Completed the first civilization accumulated in 5000 years of Chinese history.
中国的城市带超过了中国不再是农业国家 China's urban belt exceeds that of China, which is no longer an agricultural country.
农村国家是一个都市的 The country is a city.
中国的新的人 New people in China
在这个状况 In this situation
然后假如是我们到了25年 And if it were us, 25 years
就可能在60超过超过到了35年 It could be over 60 over 35 years.
我刚才说这个点非常重要 I have just said that this point is very important.
这个点基本上中国的城镇化会正常的会就砸动了 This point is basically China's urbanization will be normal, it will hit.
会慢慢的很慢 It's going to slow down
就并入轨道 Merge into orbit
和这些发达国家的回到队伍 And the return teams of these developed countries
这个时候中国在整个世界上可以进入一个发展 At this time, China can enter a development in the whole world.
所以这个时候罗大大在联合国上发言说 So at this time, Luo Dada spoke at the United nations and said
我们发达国家应该向发展中国家提供帮助 We developed countries should help the developing countries.
而不再是今天这句话 Not today
我们中国这一票永远是给发展中国家 Our vote in China will always be for developing countries.
因为它自己已经没有办法说我是发展中国家 Because it has no way to say I am a developing country.
当然也有可能说我们很大 Of course, it is possible to say that we are very big.
我们很穷 We are very poor.
我们城市里都是人在那 There are people in our city.
都是满地都是属于老企 All over the place are old enterprises.
完全可以 It's all right
我们很困难 We're having a hard time
需要大家一块来支持 We need everyone to support us.
也有可能是大大站在那个地方发展发展 It is also possible to stand in that place greatly for development.
完全有可能 It is quite possible
但是我到今天为止的分析 But my analysis so far
我是比较乐观的 I am more optimistic.
尤其今天晚上上完课 Especially after class tonight
看见同学们 See the students
我相信你们会把这条线完成掉 I believe you will finish this line.
中国的几个数字是非常好的 Several figures in China are very good.
我自己内心中间的几个数字第一大学生的素质在高速的增长 My own heart in the middle of the number of the first college students in the quality of high-speed growth.
因为你要治理城镇化 Because you want to control urbanization
整个民族都没有受过大学教育 The whole nation has no college education.
那是不行的 That won't do
你看上去的那些民族都是 The people you look to are
第二个 The second
中国的专利数在快速的增长 The number of patents in China is growing rapidly.
第三个中国的自己拥有的创新能力在快速的通过网络在传播传递 The third China's own innovation capacity in the rapid transmission through the network.
你们这一代基本上开始抛开了很多的我们这一代的历史上的进步 Your generation is basically beginning to put aside a lot of progress in the history of our generation.
开始往迁 Start to move
创新创业往前推进的时候 When innovation and entrepreneurship move forward
我自己觉得到今天为止 I feel so far
虽然前几年我还是非常觉得非常危险 Although I still feel very dangerous a few years ago.
但到今天为止 But so far
我觉得希望还是挺大的 I think there's still a lot of hope.
整个的势头还是很好 The whole momentum is still good.
起翘的思路是非常好 The train of thought is very good.
但是又一个很艰难的事情 But another tough thing
一定等待的 Be sure to wait
就是说要把每一个城镇化率都提高那么多 That is to say, we should increase the rate of urbanization by so much.
要提快速的摆开 Need to mention a quick swing
靠卖资源卖能源卖环境卖劳力的阶段 Selling resources, selling energy, selling environment, selling labor
很累 Be very tired
一定要要靠你们的比我们寒冷 It must depend on your cold than ours.
我们走过的只是说老实话 All we have come through is to tell the truth.
别人也都走过的路 The way everyone else has walked
但是你们要走过的路将是只有少部分国家才能够完成的道路 But you will have to go the way that only a small number of countries can complete.
很累 Be very tired
城镇化的人口素质 Population quality of urbanization
实际上不说了这个事情 In fact, I didn't say anything about it.
很多的数据我可以给大家看一下 I can show you a lot of data.
的话 Word
暴露的总人口在涨得非常厉害这个事 The exposed population is rising very much.
这事情要给各位同学讲清楚 This matter needs to be made clear to all the students.
中国的城镇化有两个城镇化 China's urbanization has two urbanization.
一个在这个地方 One in this place
一个是一个地方 One is a place
是什么 What is it?
两个造成的 Two-cause
一个是在城市里面生活的人 A man who lives in the city.
按照全世界的标准就是城镇化 Urbanization by world standards
还有一个是在城市里面有户口的 Another is in the city where there are accounts.
这个是没有户口的 This one has no household registration
这一段是没有户口的 There is no household registration in this section
整个都是在城市里面生活着 The whole life is in the city.
是有空的是没有的 Yes, there is no time.
这个有多少个呢 How many are there?
要10% For 10%
六七左右的人是没有户口 About six or seven people do not have a household registration.
但是在城市里是这个是很大的问题 But in the city, this is a big problem.
这是在世界上少有的一件事情 This is a rare thing in the world.
居然到城市的 To the city
但是没有实际 But there is no reality.
多少人 How many people
2.6 2.6
也就是说这是一个很大问题 In other words, this is a big problem.
进了城市 Into the city
但是没有测试过 But it has not been tested.
这是中国少有的 This is rare in China.
大家把这个问题抛给大家以后 Let's put this question to everyone later.
慢慢去想 Think slowly
这个问题为什么不能提 Why can't this question be raised?
从道理上来说 Logically speaking
从正义上来说 In the sense of justice
每个人进城 Everybody in town
你怎么不让他户口 Why don't you let him keep his account?
但是假如你是市长 But if you were the mayor
一定会想 I'm sure I'll think
我只要一放开来 I just have to let go
我的整个城市的供给会一下子全下去 The supply of my whole city will go down all at once.
你本来是100万人 You were a million people
你的是 Yours is
薛市长 Xue mayor
临港一个城市100万 A city in Lingang
你只要放出来 You just let it out
明天就300万 Three million tomorrow
一定会给你200万 I will give you two million
马上就去了 I'll be right there
那么你一旦是你假如放开来 Then once you are, if you let go.
你是公正的 You are just
确实早 Indeed early
没有钱 Have no money
都都会想着 Everybody thinks
但是原来一百块是比较方便 But it turns out that one hundred is more convenient.
我们哪里来那么多苹果 Where do we get so many apples?
的医院哪里来的 Where did the hospital come from?
这个住宅一下子没有贴农村 The house was not attached to the countryside at once.
但是因为大部分人不允许 But because most people don't allow it.
这就是一个既得利和一个需要革命之间的部位 This is the part between the gains and the need for revolution.
按照理论上来说 In theory
应该大家应该的一定要至少我在规划界 Everyone should be sure to at least I am in the demarcation.
我一直强调我们城市配置一定要按照这个配置 I have always stressed that our city configuration must be in accordance with this configuration.
就是按照你实际人口来配置多少医院 How many hospitals are allocated according to your actual population?
多少小学多少商业面积 How many primary schools and how many commercial areas?
而不再是按照你的有户口的 Not according to your account
因为一般老板市长给你谈的时候 Because the general boss, when the mayor talks to you
他说我有多少户布局模式 He said, "how many households do I have?"
那么你按照这样配的话 So you go with it
不是造成这些人就是缺医少药 Either they cause these people or they lack medical care.
上学都有 Go to school
所以说我是一直在挂 So I've been hanging up
就要强调以这东西来定制 It is important to emphasize that this is the way to customize it.
那么这个就会慢慢的我们远 Then this will slowly get us far
那么你就可以把它释放出来 Then you can release it.
现在中央政府在强力推进这个词 Now the central government is pushing the word hard
就把这个点尽量往这个上面 Just put this point as far up as possible
尽量就要盯着下面市场 Try to keep an eye on the market below
下面的省长一定要把这些人能够放进来的 The governor below must be able to let these people in.
尽量改户口 Try to change the account
不能再是农村人口户口在城市里面生活 Can no longer be a rural population living in the city.
这样是不合理的 This is unreasonable.
这是这件事情 This is the matter
这是也是少有的一件事情 This is also a rare thing.
在中国有两个城镇化 There are two urbanization in China.
城镇化率多少 What is the rate of conversion?
现在这个是放在三也是减掉十 Now this is put in three or minus ten
八期左右 About eight stages
就是项目 Is the project
我们一般的外事整个城市市长老给你做 Our general foreign affairs, the mayor of the city always do it for you.
我们可以看到第二件事情 We can see the second thing
很高兴我们能源的同学们机械人员 I am very glad that our energy classmates are mechanical personnel.
我给大家说一件事情 Let me tell you something
在城镇化的过程中间 In the process of urbanization
能耗社会高速的增长高速增长 High-speed growth of energy consumption society
大家想一想 Think about it
一个农民用掉多少电 How much electricity does a farmer use?
一个城市人用到多少电 How much electricity does a city man use?
一个城市人直接的耗电量和农村的耗电量 A city's direct electricity consumption and rural electricity consumption.
还有一个事情就是一个城市人的使用的所有的产品 Another thing is that a city person uses all the products.
它的再生产过程中间的耗电 Electricity consumption in the middle of its reproduction process
耗能量是非常多的 It takes a lot of energy
这件事情同学们一定要清楚的 The students must be clear about this matter.
我们在上海调查到一栋建筑 We investigated a building in Shanghai.
在股东同样的房子的两套房子面积一样的 In the shareholders of the same house, the two houses of the same size.
电表上的耗电量是差22倍 The electricity on the meter is 22 times worse.
22倍意味着什么呢 What does 22 times mean?
意味着一个是进去调查 Which means one is going in to investigate
是一个老太太和老爷爷整天进进出出关灯 It's an old lady and grandpa coming in and out all day and turning off the lights.
空调能够不开 The air conditioner can not be turned on.
尽量不开开空调 Try not to turn on the air conditioner
就是老一辈 The older generation
但是隔壁那对小青年在外资企业工作 But the young couple next door are working in a foreign-funded enterprise.
进进出 In and out
永远空调开着 The air conditioner is always on
我相信在他们年纪老的时候 I believe that when they are old
不一定活的过 Not necessarily live
那对老大 The bosses
虽然它的耗电量是内阁B的22倍 Although it uses 22 times as much electricity as cabinet B.
同济大学的学生应该知道我们是一个节能的学校出来 Tongji university students should know that we are an energy-saving school out.
我们不应该这样把自己关在一个24小时 We should not lock ourselves up in this way for 24 hours.
永远在空调的环境里 Always in the air conditioning environment.
我们应该知道自然风是更加清更加健康的 We should know that the natural wind is clearer and healthier.
我告诉大家一个数字 Let me tell you a number
今天大家扔在这里面有点闷 It's a little stuffy in here today.
罐很热 The pot is very hot.
冒了很多汗 Sweat a lot
我也冒很多汗 I sweat a lot too
但是大家要珍惜 But we should cherish it.
人的一辈子 A person's life
就算你活一百岁 Even if you live to be a hundred years old
城镇化一百 Urbanization 100
一百岁 A hundred years old
一年真正让你真正从里面内部排毒排汗最厉害的只有22天 The year really allows you to really detoxify from the inside, the worst of which is only 22 days.
100年 100 years
也就是2000天 That's 2000 days
你一辈子活到一百岁也就2000天 You will live to be one hundred years old for two thousand days.
你可以好好排毒的 You can get rid of the poison well.
知道了吧 Got it
不要老在空调下面 Don't keep under the air conditioner.
真正的能够排毒的日子 The real day of being able to detoxify
人是本来和自然合一的 Man is originally one with nature.
该排毒的时候让它排掉部分 Let it drain when the poison is discharged
当然有些同学很好 Of course, some students are very good.
天天跑天天拍 Run and shoot every day
拍的很厉害 It was a good shot
拍的很干净 The picture is very clean.
干净到你们知道长跑运动员假如是马拉松的运动员的话 Clean to the point where you know a runner is a marathon runner
很少得癌症就是彻底排空 Very little cancer is total emptying
所有东西全排 Everything in a row
所有的垃圾全部 All the rubbish
所以说22天要珍惜一年22天以后记住了同济大学的学生吴老师 Therefore, 22 days to cherish a year, 22 days later, remember Tongji university students teacher Wu.
上过的课的学生特别珍惜出汗的那22天 The students who took the class cherish the two days of sweating.
该出汗时候出汗 Sweat when it is time to sweat
不要老马上送不了了 Don't always be late.
拼命所有的东西全部空调没有必要出掉 All the things desperately all the air conditioner doesn't have to go out.
就出掉点好吧 Just drop it off
这是对地球好 This is good for the earth.
对你们好 Good for you
的话 Word
城镇化什么呢 What about urbanization?
就城镇化的能耗会一般的话 As far as the energy consumption of urbanization is concerned
我们的在中国的城市化我们量了一下 We measured our urbanization in China.
从20~50% From 20 to 50%
涨了30%个点 Up 30% points
但是总能耗增长了五倍 But the total energy consumption has increased five times.
那么你们不是接下去还要完成治理城镇化的30个点 Then, you will have to complete the next 30 points of urbanization.
从50到85还了得吗 From 50 to 85.
这个地球被你们耗光了 The earth is consumed by you.
按照这样再涨百五世界 In this way, the world will grow again.
上哪里有那么多能力 How can there be so many abilities in the world?
现在中国在近电能源就很困难了 Now it is very difficult for China to get near-term electricity.
大家知道晋能源很困难 We all know that Jin energy is very difficult.
我自己说过 I said it myself
城镇化接下去很大的障碍 The next big obstacle to urbanization
就是以这种粗放式的方式再来过我们的城镇化 It is in this extensive way to come back to our urbanization.
再往前推进 Push forward
这是中国城镇化最大的一个门槛 This is the biggest threshold of urbanization in China.
没有那么多的人提供 Not so many people offer
说到底就这么回事情 After all, that's the way it is.
我说过 I said
要么我们突然之间按照西方的方式占领很大的油田 Either we suddenly occupy a large oil field in the western way.
弄很大的土地 Make a lot of land
这些土地下面都是油 The land is covered with oil.
像我们每天供 Like we offer every day
这是第一种可能 This is the first possibility.
那就意味着要战争了 That means war.
愿意吗 Will you?
愿意每人去战争吗 Would you like everyone to go to war?
为了我们的石油 For our oil
日本人就愿意 The Japanese are willing
我告诉大家 I tell you
日本人很大的依仗 The Japanese are very dependent
就是为了他是日本人的打了第二次大战的致命的一战的根本原因是 It was because he was Japanese that the root cause of the deadly first world war of the second world war was
没有使用 Unused
他突然发现在南方 He suddenly found himself in the south.
它的所有石油 All its oil
当时整个日本要用的石油 The oil that the whole of Japan used at that time
美国人是保障他的 Americans protect him.
但是他突然之间发现它的保障 But he suddenly discovered its security.
它的消耗量和美国的供给的量的量 Its consumption and the amount of supply in the United States.
正好是在南亚发现很大的油田 It is in south Asia that a large oil field is found.
所以他突然之间掉头 So he suddenly turned around
这些将军们就开始不听话了 The generals began to disobey.
拼命去往整个南方扩张 Go all the way south
要露天 To be open
只有我们占领了 We're the only ones who have taken over
这块是由我们就不再听美国人的 This is for us to stop listening to Americans.
不再把我们的石油命运捏在美国时候 No longer hold our oil destiny in America
突然之间南站这样再倒下去的话 All of a sudden, if the south station goes down like this
它就是致命 It's deadly
整个战略棋盘全乱动 The whole strategic chessboard is in motion
最后这一张大家知道 This last one, as you know
惨到什么程度 To what extent
最后还是石油命脉也在国家收 Finally, oil is the lifeblood of the state.
实际上这条道路是我是很不赞成 In fact, I don't agree with this road.
就是为了我们的石油而在第二条道路 It's the second way for our oil
突然之间 Suddenly
我们同济大学发现我们下面很大块油挺下去 Our Tongji university found a lot of oil below us to survive.
都是梦想一样 It's all a dream
但是我又发现一个事情 But I found another thing
大家发现吗 Did you find out?
只要地下一发现石油 As soon as oil is found underground
地下一发现煤矿这些地方上面的人就傻掉了 The people above the coal mines are foolish as soon as they are found underground.
真的自立就一下就退化 If you really stand on your own feet, you will be degraded.
你们相信吗 Do you believe it?
我很坚信的 I believe it
我们这里同学有近三有山西的同学 There are nearly three classmates here, who are from Shanxi.
我们原来进山我山西 We used to go into the mountains and Shanxi
我们山西过去 We went to Shanxi
又不靠没货日子得靠资历过日子的人 A man who has to live on seniority, not on a shoestring
整个从东南亚一直卖到圣彼得堡 All the way from southeast Asia to st. Petersburg
全是我们山西人掌管的 We are all in charge of Shanxi.
突然之间地下挖下了没了 All of a sudden, the ground was dug out.
我们扫掉了 We swept away
我们只能卖到今天卖的整个家家户户都是美的 The whole family we can sell today is beautiful.
子里面都没吃 I didn't eat anything in it.
都是煤灰粉丝 All fans
力一下就下去了 Give it a push and it will go down.
你就知道地下有矿产不一定是好事情 You know that having minerals underground is not necessarily a good thing.
不仅是好事情 Not only good things
不要以为突然之间今天晚上回去做梦 Don't think that all of a sudden go back to dream tonight.
我们床底下突然之间是油田 Under our bed suddenly there was an oil field.
就傻掉了 It's silly
人就傻掉了 People are stupid
第三种可能就是我现在说要走上一条可持续发展的节能的城镇化到 The third possibility is that I am now talking about a sustainable development of energy-saving urbanization.
这是非常重要 This is very important.
这个产业一定要升级换代 This industry must be upgraded.
走到另外一个不是靠能耗 Go to the other one not on energy consumption
靠污染 Rely on pollution
靠大规模这样来做产业上去 To do industry on a large scale
当然景观也会有很大的挑战 Of course, the landscape will be a great challenge.
都搞的全世界都在比高低 The whole world is competing against each other.
都是都在提高 Everything is improving
我们世博会很厉害 Our world Expo is very powerful.
我们世博会这个是能看到我们把的猜测 This is what we can see in the world Expo.
我们写的是世博会边上 We are writing on the edge of the world Expo.
这个都是开始说我们犯之间在世博会中间 This is the beginning that between our criminals in the middle of the world Expo.
我们世博会的场地上添写了大规模的瘤子 The site of our world Expo has a large scale tumor on it.
所有地方都写 Write everywhere
我说所有地方都写给我写 I said write it to me everywhere
留不写成 Leave or not write
我就搞的万一不一样 I'll do it in case it's different.
兴奋死掉 Die of excitement
第一次看见头 First sight of the head
以后再待会再说 We'll talk about it later
社会的挑战也是非常大的 The challenges of society are also very great.
刚才说过了 I just said that
实际上我前面说了一个什么叫城镇化 In fact, I said earlier what is urbanization?
什么叫文化会有很大的冲击的 What do you mean, culture has a big impact?
都市文化和传统的文化如何结合 How to combine urban culture with traditional culture
创造中心都市文化 Creating the urban culture of the center
不是简单的西方的 Not simple western
也不是简单的古代 It is not a simple ancient time.
实际上想到这个地方 Actually think of this place
您也想到 You also think
我就想回到一个主题 I just want to go back to a subject
为什么我们进同济大学 Why did we go to Tongji university?
为什么我们在上海滩要办同济大学 Why do we have to run Tongji university in Shanghai beach?
办到现在108年 Do it now 108 years.
我们都为了什么 What are we all for?
实际上我们就为了一件事情就在这个地方 In fact, we are in this place for one thing.
我们希望在这个地方创造一种中国 We hope to create a kind of China in this place.
但不是古代的简单的模仿 But it's not a simple imitation of ancient times.