第二个方面就是对上海2040的一些战略性的思考 The second aspect is some strategic thinking about Shanghai 2040.
大概有有一些方面 There are probably some aspects
比如第一点 Like the first point
我们说上海作为全球城市 We say Shanghai is a global city.
它应该是什么样的一个发展路径 What kind of path should it be?
发展路径 Development path
这是上海的一个全球城市的一个地位的变化 This is a change in the status of a global city in Shanghai.
其实上海过去的十年里面地位提高的很快 In fact, in the past ten years, Shanghai's status has improved rapidly.
但是所以在这个里面就有一个非常重要的一个认识 But so there is a very important understanding in this
包括我们的很多老师也做了一个分析 Many of our teachers also made an analysis.
比如上海作为这样的一个全球城市 Shanghai, for example, as such a global city.
在全球城市12年是排在第六位 12 years in the world's cities is ranked sixth.
是吧 Right
但它的对外的经济联系是什么 But what is its external economic connection?
它其实承担的是一个对内对外两个扇面的作用 It actually takes on the role of both internal and external sectors.
你像这张表里面反映的 You look like this one
比如说上海的外资银行 For example, foreign banks in Shanghai.
它其实国际业务很少的 It actually has very little international business.
主要是国内跟国际之间的这样一种业务 Mainly between domestic and international such a business.
包括航运也是上海的航运是世界第一吞吐量 Including shipping is also Shanghai's shipping is the world's first throughput.
但主要是国际跟国内的这样的一种中转业务 But mainly international and domestic such a transit business.
它不是一个国际间的中转 It's not an international transit
所以跟新加坡是有很大区别的 So there is a big difference between Singapore and Singapore.
所以这其实也是上海未来发展必须考虑的 Therefore, this is in fact the future development of Shanghai must be considered.
因为现在上中国已经是世界第二大经济体 Because China is now the world's second largest economy.
有可能在2040这个期间完全可能变成世界第一大经济 It is possible to become the world's largest economy in the period of 2040.
所以这样的一个两个扇面的作用 So the effect of one of these two sectors
有可能是应该支撑上海新一轮的发展战略的一个基本的一个支点 It is possible that Shanghai should support a new round of development strategy of a basic fulcrum.
一定是要考虑服务国内跟服务 Must consider serving domestic and service.
国际这里面就提了两个要求 There are two requirements in the international community.
第一上海要更进一步做强它的门户 First, Shanghai should further strengthen its portal.
第二个方面就是要加强对内联系 The second aspect is to strengthen internal ties.
对长三角的联系 The relation to the Yangtze river delta
而不是把上海看成一个孤立的全球城市 Rather than seeing Shanghai as an isolated global city
所以就要强调双轮驱动 So we have to emphasize the two-wheel drive.
双重驱动 Dual drive
其实双轮驱动方向的驱动 In fact, the driving direction of the two-wheel drive.
一个对外一个对内 One external and one internal
其实大家也能理解 In fact, we can understand.
上海的门户在哪里 Where is the gateway to Shanghai?
在东面 East
浦东机场 Pudong airport
洋山港是吧 Yangshan harbor isn't it
这些大包括我们自贸区是吧 These include our free trade area, right?
代表了上海外向发展的这么一些重大的一些功能都在东面 Represents the outward development of Shanghai, so some of the major functions are in the east.
那么辐射的是西面 So the radiation is west
辐射的心 Radiant heart
所以这需要有一个转换 So this requires a transformation
怎么样的把东边的这样一种门户跟西面很好地衔接起来 How do you connect such a portal in the east with the west?
衔接起来 Join together
因此在这一轮这里面 So in this round
其实也隐含着上海必须重视郊区的发展 In fact, it also implies that Shanghai must pay attention to the development of the suburbs.
就是要传递你对外的一个辐射的能力 Is to transmit your ability to emit radiation
然后要注重区域化的这样战略 Then we should focus on such a regional strategy.
长三角的协同的战略 The cooperative strategy of Yangtze river delta
第二个方面就是关于上海的 The second aspect is about Shanghai.
短板在哪里 Where is the short board?
我们说上海现在的全球城市地位更多的还是从规模意义上来讲 We say that Shanghai is now a global city, or more from the point of view of scale.
所以从结构上来讲 So structurally
确实是存在很多短板最突出的国际上有些机构做评估 Indeed, there are many short board, the most prominent international organizations to do the assessment.
比如上海的宜居的环境 For example, Shanghai's livable environment.
移居的环境 Migratory environment
也包括城市的竞争力 It also includes the competitiveness of cities.
它但它竞争力更多的是谈它的一个除了经济规模之外的 It, but its competitiveness is more about its one in addition to the size of the economy.
比如创新创意等等 For example, innovative ideas and so on.
这样的能力 This ability
其实是跟国际上差别差距很大的 In fact, it is very different from the world.
所以这一轮的上海一方面要对照全球城市是靠什么来支撑的 Therefore, this round of Shanghai on the one hand, against the global city is to rely on what to support.
当然有很多方面 Of course, there are many aspects.
但最缺的应该是什么 But what should be the most missing?
我们现在讲的上海科技创新文化创意能力 What we are talking about now is the creative ability of science, technology, innovation and culture in Shanghai.
其实在中国上海在中国都没有太大 In fact, Shanghai in China is not too big in China.
你如果要变成一个具有全球竞争力的这种科技创新的中心 If you want to become a global competitive center of this kind of technological innovation.
其实上海必须有一个非常大的跨越 In fact, Shanghai must have a very big leap.
非常大的跨越 A very big leap
当然也包括我们的一些环境 Of course, including some of our environment.
是吧 Right
因为全球城市都是世界精英的一个汇聚地 Because the world's cities are a gathering place of the world's elite.
你怎么样的提供一个高品质的生活环境等等这些方面 How do you provide a high quality living environment and so on?
其实都是上海在这一轮的发展里面必须去努力去打造 In fact, it is all Shanghai in this round of development, which must be made.
所以这一轮的发展 So this round of development
其实上海面临着一个动力的一个转换 In fact, Shanghai is facing a power conversion.
过去更加强调的是一个规模 In the past, the emphasis was more on a scale.
接下来可能更多的是靠的是一种结构 Next, perhaps more on a structure.
就是你结构的竞争力和一种可持续的环境 Is the competitiveness of your structure and a sustainable environment.
人力资本 Human capital
所以可以概括起来 So it can be summarized
如果上海要变成一个 If Shanghai is going to become a
当然我们说已经不是一般意义上的全球城市了 Of course, we say that is not the general sense of the global city.
上海一定是目标是迈向世界级的这样的一个最重要的三个维度 Shanghai must be the goal to move towards world class, one of the three most important dimensions.
其实一个是从当然仍然是全球城市的这样一种综合性的功能 In fact, one is, of course, is still a global city of such a comprehensive function.
但更重要的是创新和资源的配置能力 But what is more important is the ability to innovate and allocate resources.
其实资源配置能力其实还是在金融中心 In fact, the ability to allocate resources is still in the financial center.
京津金融的这样一个科技创新 Such a scientific and technological innovation of Beijing-Tianjin finance
当然科技创新也包含了文化创意 Of course, technological innovation also includes cultural creativity.
是吧 Right
第二个方面就是人文的城市 The second aspect is the city of humanity.
所以我们去看那些全球城市的这种本身它就是必须是一个更加多元化 So we go to look at the global cities of this kind itself, it must be a more diversified.
的多元化 Diversity
然后具有自身的一个文化的特质 Then it has its own cultural characteristics.
包容的这么一个城市 An inclusive city
再有一个就是生态 Another is ecology.
所以这三个方面应该算是上海市支撑上海发展的三个维度 So these three aspects should be regarded as three dimensions that Shanghai supports the development of Shanghai.
当然这里面其实每个都面临着重大瓶颈 Of course, in fact, each face a major bottleneck.
这三块都是上海的 All three are from Shanghai.
现在的短板短板比如说从人力资源来看 For example, from the point of view of human resources.
上海现在是10年的数据 Shanghai is now 10 years of data.
六岁以上的外来人口就900万的外来人口里面 The foreign population over the age of six is 9 million.
六岁以上受过教育的只占百分之高中以上只占16% Only 16% of those over the age of six have received education, and only percent of those above senior high school.
上海在常住人口里面这个指标大概接近30% Shanghai in the resident population, this indicator is close to 30%.
接近30%就26左右 Close to 30%, about 26.
那么差距很大 So there's a big gap
在某种意义上也反映了就是上海本身吸引这些外来人口的这样的一个 In a sense, it also reflects the Shanghai itself to attract such a foreign population.
这些产业其实都是可能不具有说这种更强的一种竞争力的产业 In fact, these industries may not have said that this stronger a competitive industry.
就没有太大的优势 There's no big advantage
人当然也可以看到我们杨浦是吧 Of course people can also see us in Yangpu, right?
杨浦区 Yang pu distict
杨浦区我们说叫三区联动 Yangpu district, we said that the three areas linked.
大家都知道杨浦大他们有十年叫三区联动 As we all know, Yang Puda, they have ten years, called three district linkage.
校区 Campus
园区加设区 Park plus area
校区大学 Campus university
园区就科技园 Science and technology park
社区就是我们的公共的社区 Community is our public community.
三区联动 Three-zone linkage
那么我们前面一段时间也在杨在研究杨浦的战略 Well, we have been studying Yang pu's strategy for some time before.
其实这三个区之间是没有共同利益诉求的 In fact, there is no common interest between the three districts.
学校的核心是培养人才 The core of the school is to train talents.
他为什么要把它的科技创新能力跟你杨浦打造知识创新区直接联系 Why should he put its scientific and technological innovation ability with your Yang pu to create a knowledge innovation area directly linked.
起来 Rise
因为好多的这种 Because a lot of this
比如说我的专利成果转化 For example, my patent results transformation.
我为什么会在当地孵化 Why do I hatch there?
不会的 No
是吧 Right
然后对于高校来讲 And then for colleges and universities
更多的是为了培养人 More to train people
那么社区是什么 So what is the community
我们上海杨浦区都是老工房社区 Our Yangpu district in Shanghai is a community of old workers.
过去的大量的产业工人 A large number of industrial workers in the past
他们的这些 These of them
包括我们看到这些老公房 Including when we see these old houses
它能承载我们创新功能 It can carry our innovative function.
那么社区的管理 So community management
他更多的是从社区的和谐发展这种角度去考虑的 He is more from the community's harmonious development of this perspective.
他怎么跟你科技创新有关系 How does he have anything to do with your technological innovation?
还有个园区 There is also a park.
我们现在的园区 Our present campus
虽然我们说周边我们上杨浦有很多的园区 Although we say that we have a lot of parks in Yangpu around here.
但园区很多的对于去年来讲 But the park has a lot to say about last year.
更多的是一个经济规模的风险 More is a risk of economic scale.
因为园区本身它并不具有这种创科技创新的这样一种诉求 Because the park itself, it does not have such a demand for innovative technology.
更多的是所以我们说三区联动它不是简单的一个目标 What is more, so we say that the three areas linked, it is not a simple goal.
是没有错的 There is no mistake
但关键缺少一个纽带 But the key is the lack of a bond.
创新主体其实是人只有人 The main body of innovation is actually only human.
在校区园区社区之间发挥了他作为一个创新主体的作用 In the campus area between the community played his role as an innovative main body.
三区才能联动起来 Three zones can be linked together
所以我们就提出来一个叫做2040战略 So we came up with a strategy called 2040.
我们当时跟吴老师吴志强老师一起在商量 We were discussing with teacher Wu Zhiqiang at that time.
上海杨浦是有很多大学生 There are many college students in Yangpu, Shanghai.
所以你按照杨浦的人口受教育的程度的结构来看 So you look at the structure of the education level of the population in Yangpu
大学生很高 College students are very high.
就是受教育高的人比重也很高 The proportion of people with high education is also very high.
受教育 Be educated
没有受过教育或教育程度很低的人也很高 People with no education or low education are also very high.
所以他跟每个区都不一样 So he is different from every district.
别的区越靠中心 The more central the other districts
曾受教育程度越高 The higher the education level
越到郊区 Go over to the suburbs
这种受教育程度的低的人口比重越高 The higher the proportion of the population with this low level of education
唯一阳普是这么一个 Only Yang Pu is such a
然后这张图也表示的什么 And what does this graph mean?
就是杨浦区的人口分布 Is the population distribution in Yangpu district
人口按照年龄段分布 Population distribution by age
然后你就看到这是这个年龄段 And then you see this is the age
就是大学生受教育的群体 Is the group of college students who are educated.
然后这些大学生就走了 Then the college students left.
所以上海一个非常洋浦来讲 So Shanghai is a very Yangpu speaking.
就是一个我们研究 It's just one of our research
比如说要特别关注20岁 For example, pay special attention to 20 years old.
到30岁就大学毕业了是吧 I graduated from college at the age of 30, right?
可能也包括应该到研究生毕业 It may also include graduation from graduate school.
就这些群体能不能在杨浦创业 Can these groups start their own businesses in Yangpu?
怎么样能够留下来 How can we stay?
他们创业有什么需求 What is the need for them to start a business?
然后你怎么创造条件让他在这里创业 Then how do you create the conditions for him to start his business here?
在一个群体是什么 What is in a group?
我们说精英群体 We say elite groups
它不是创业了 It's not starting a business
他可能具备更强的一个带领大家去创新能力的这么一个群体 He may have a stronger lead to the innovation of such a group.
如果这两个群体都能够在杨浦留下来的话 If both groups can stay in Yangpu
杨浦的知识创新区才有可能有基础 Yang pu's knowledge innovation area is likely to have a foundation.
所以就反过头来 So I went over it
这一轮的我们跟杨浦区里面交流 In this round, we communicate with the Yangpu district.
就是上杨浦未来的战略能不能聚焦 Is it possible to focus on the future strategy of shangyangpu?
就所谓的创新创业的这样一个战略 On the so-called innovation and entrepreneurship of such a strategy.
能不能回归到这里来 Can you come back here?
而不简单的去谈三区联动 Instead of simply talking about the three-district linkage
所以更多的是要把创新的这种要素主体联动起来 Therefore, it is more important to combine the main elements of innovation.
再一个很重要的就是关于上海和长三角的关系 Another important thing is the relationship between Shanghai and the Yangtze river delta.
这是区域战略 This is a regional strategy.
就是这一轮上海的一个基本的出发点 It is a basic starting point for this round of Shanghai.
当然我们说上海跟周边地区的联系 Of course, we said that Shanghai and the surrounding areas of contact.
它有不同的层次 It has different levels
是吧 Right
最重要的层次里边最重要层总共是基本上是这个就我们说的长三角 The most important level inside the most important layer is basically this, we said the Yangtze river delta.
城镇群这样一个地区 A region such as a flock.
这个地区 This area
那么这个地区跟上海的发展其实是有一个很重要的一个连接的 In fact, there is a very important connection between the development of this area and Shanghai.
其实就是交通和城镇发展的这些廊道 In fact, it is the traffic and urban development of these corridors.
就这种廊道怎么理顺 How to straighten out this corridor
廊道走 Corridor walk
旅行特别是什么 Travel, especially what?
这是美国的铁路网 This is the American railway network.
铁路网是在100年前就形成了100年前行 The railway network was formed 100 years ago, 100 years ago.
为什么 Why
因为他们经历了一个铁路的失败 Because they went through a railway failure.
当时还没有 Not yet
汽车呢 Car cloth
或者是汽车大规模的发展 Or the massive development of cars
他们靠铁路 They depend on the railway.
所以刚才我们比较东京也有这样的特点 So just now we compare Tokyo also have such characteristics.
其实他很早就形成了很密集的铁路网 In fact, he had formed a very dense railway network early on.
那么整个长三角铁路网其实还没有建立起来 Then the entire Yangtze river delta railway network has not yet been established.
过去的30年里面 For the past 30 years
只有到最近几年才开始建设高铁 It is only in recent years that the construction of high-speed rail has begun.
整个没有成网络 There is no network at all.
所以这一轮的战略如何去关注铁路 So this round of strategy, how to pay attention to the railway?
对整个地区发展的支撑 Support for the development of the whole region
然后来引导这些廊道 And guide these corridors
比如说沿江物流 For example, along the river logistics.
沿着杭州湾的物流 Logistics along Hangzhou bay
过去的这种红颜色 This red color of the past
可能就是比如我们到杭州方向 Maybe it's like we're going to Hangzhou.
它其实重要的是商务流就是人流 In fact, it is important that the business flow is the flow of people.
而东边就是我们的门户 And the east is our gateway
所有的这些通道怎么样 How about all these channels
跟我们的门户更好的连接 Better connection to our portal
然后把南北能够打通 Then we can get through the north and the south.
因为上海过去一直是身在最东面的是吧 Because Shanghai used to be in the east, right?
它是一个近端的 It's a proximal
整个向西的联系 The whole westward connection
只有向西联系 Only to the west
所以他们在研究的过程中说 So they said in the course of their research
过去的上海对内辐射只有30度的夹角 In the past, there was only 30 degrees of internal radiation in Shanghai.
沪宁跟护航 Hu Ning follows escort
那么如果能够进一步的向杭州湾和向沿江地区 Well, if we can go further to Hangzhou bay and along the river
然后如果还进一步的能够推动沿海的这种跨海的通道 Then, if further can promote the coastal cross-sea channels.
其实也在研究这条通道 In fact, we are also studying this channel.
如果能够建立的话 If it can be established
那么上海对内辐射的格局就会完全 Then Shanghai's internal radiation pattern will be complete.
那么到整个上海周边地区 So to the whole area around Shanghai
可能是一个需要完全一体化的地区 Could be a region that needs full integration
比如说昆山和嘉定地区 For example, Kunshan and Jiading
可能就要考虑它的一体化 It may have to consider its integration.
再有一个就是关于人口用地和存量规划的关系 Another is about the relationship between population, land and stock planning.
大家可能也听说过 You may have heard of it
上海在做的一些报道里面谈到 Some of the reports that Shanghai is doing say
就上海现在在严控人口规模 Shanghai is now strictly controlling the population size.
人口报 Population
那么上海为什么提这个其实是跟上海发展压力有关的 So why does Shanghai mention this is actually related to the pressure of Shanghai's development?
资源生态环境的压力 Pressure of resources and ecological environment
人口过快的增长 A rapid increase in population
对上海来讲肯定不是件好事 It is certainly not a good thing for Shanghai.
而从国家战略来讲 And in terms of national strategy
其实也在推动国土开发的一个均衡 In fact, also promote the development of a balanced land.
不能让人口过度集聚 We must not let the population gather too much
所以也包括现在出现了一个制造业的就业的变化 Therefore, including now there is a change in the employment of the manufacturing industry.
是吧 Right
所以很多人口在回流 So a lot of people are returning
人口在回流 The population is returning
所以某种意义上上海还是强调的就是要对人口规模进行控制 Therefore, in a sense, Shanghai still stressed that it is necessary to control the size of the population.
进行控制 Carry on control
但这个控制的过程其实是一个人口结构优化的过程 But this process of control is actually a process of population structure optimization.
就一方面它的刚才看到了 On the one hand, it just saw.
就是我们大量的外来人口里面 Is that we have a large number of foreign populations
其实并不支撑上海变成一个全球城市这样的人口结构 In fact, it does not support Shanghai to become a global city, such as the population structure.
所以上海需要一个更加能够对未来的发展具有支撑性的这样一个 Therefore, Shanghai needs a more able to the future development of such a support.
所以一方面对人口的一个适度调控和人口的结构优化要结合在一起 Therefore, on the one hand, a moderate regulation of the population and the optimization of the population structure should be combined.
但更多的要关注是一种市场手段 But more attention is a market tool.
而不是一种行政手段 Rather than an administrative means
所以这些人进不来 So these people can't get in.
而是说你要通过市场的手段去做调节 It means you have to adjust through the market.
做调解 Mediate
所以需要市场的手段 So we need the means of the market
很重要的就是用产业结构的 It is very important to use the industrial structure.
因为上海确实面临着产业结构调整的一个过程 Because Shanghai is really facing an industrial restructuring process.
那么怎么样的去把一些比如说能耗高 So what about putting some, for example, high energy consumption?
效率低低附加值 Low efficiency, low added value
这样的产业导弹 Such industrial missiles
这也是上海的必然的选择 This is also the inevitable choice of Shanghai.
必然的选择 Inevitable choice
用这种市场的手段来做调控 Use this market to regulate and control.
而另外一方面 On the other hand
你说人口增长其实是弹性的 You say population growth is actually flexible
弹性的 Elastic
所以你对人口的这样一种政策必须是有阶段性评估的 So you have to have a phased assessment of such a policy on population.
所以这也是这轮规划提出的一个要求 So this is also a request for this round of planning.
并不是简单的去做一个调控 It is not simply to do a regulation.
而不考虑手段 Without considering the means
而另外一方面也不能简单的只考虑目标 On the other hand, we can not simply consider the goal.
不考虑动态的应对 A dynamic response without consideration
你要不断的去评估这样一个政策合理不合理 You have to constantly evaluate the rationality of such a policy.
然后应该做什么样的 Then what should be done?